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MANIFOLD
Will the US impose 50% secondary tariffs on any Iran weapons supplier by July 31, 2026?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ71
Jul 31
72%
chance

On April 8, 2026, President Trump announced a threat: any country supplying military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed 50% on all goods sold to the United States. As of May 5, 2026, the threat has been publicly made but no specific country has been named or had the tariff actually applied via Executive Order or USTR action. RESOLVES YES if the US officially imposes (via Executive Order, Presidential Proclamation, or USTR implementation) a 50% or higher secondary tariff specifically targeting at least one named country on the stated basis of supplying military weapons to Iran, on or before 23:59 UTC July 31, 2026. The tariff must be effectuated, not merely re-threatened. RESOLVES NO if no such country-specific 50%+ tariff is imposed by the deadline. Generic tariff increases on broad-based grounds (steel, autos, etc.) do NOT count — must be specifically on the Iran-weapons-supplier basis.

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