MANIFOLD
Will @bens puzzle be solved in the last hours of 2025? (+ clearinghouse)
19
Ṁ800Ṁ11k
resolved Dec 23
Resolved
NO

Refers to

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?50%

This market resolves YES if a solution to @bens ’ puzzle is submitted as a comment on the original market (https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle) between 6:00:00 PM and 11:59:59 PM EST on December 31, 2025. The timestamp of the comment in EST is what determines resolution. Any solution submitted outside this window resolves NO. The market also resolves NO if the puzzle isn’t solved.


Surplus guesses

ALDEA

ARROW

BARCO

ANCHO

ARMOR

BARAK

BARCA

BEACH

CABOT

CASAS

CLIFF

CLUBS

COBRA

CRUZE

CRYPT

DELTA

ELIZA

FERRY

FINAL

FINIS

GLYPH

GOLFO

GUIDE

LATIN

LINES

LINKS

MORSE

ORBIT

PHINS

POINT

PONTO

PUNOS

PUNTO

SARDI

SIGHT

SKULL

SOUND

SFYNX

STOPS

TORUS

VISTA

SEINE

PISCO

PEDRO

HYDRA

NATAL

PISCO

ROVER

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If anyone wants to know the easiest way to check if your guess has already been used:

  1. Open this link: https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comments?contractId=gPA029Rcyh

  1. Search in the page for your term

  2. Profit

Here are In the market description I list some guesses that I think people can try if they’re looking for ideas. I don’t guarantee they haven’t been tried at the time you’re looking, nor do they all connect all the hints as neatly as I’d like. I will try to keep the list updated. Feel free to suggest guesses that others can use.

Sometron. hint is related to the Tamam Shud mystery. The Somerton Man was later identified as Carl “Charles” Webb, who was poisoned

Pal Charles Benko[1] (Hungarian: Benkő Pál; July 15, 1928 – August 25, 2019[a]) was a Hungarian and American chess grandmaster, author, and composer of endgame studies and chess problems.

Can someone guess golfo please

And Julio

@nikki I'd guess some of them if you can demonstrate how they relate to the hints. Like is golfo related to the hint Nazareth? And is Julio related to the hint Somerton? etc.

The repeated characters are P, h, N, 9, S. If we replace 9 with "i" and rearrange them we can get Phins, as in the Miami Phins. Miami has Spanish, Portuguese, and Haitian Creole speakers, which relates to some of the other hints. Miami is coastal as well. It's worth a try I guess

@ItsMe Too bad SPHINX has six letters but the board game SFYNX has nine riddles.

Golf club, football club, gulf coast…

@MachiNi LINKS

need to try these: Neira Hapax Hapas

I've got a fairly good one, that I can link to quite a few of them, but can't quite make teh connection with the IPA codes. And I used my guess for today.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen May as well share more to collaborate? There is some evidence Ben is looking at the comments and hinting appropriately.

@Eliza A search for many along with ALIAS, brings results

Except for the IPA clues, everything can be tied back to the coastal theme

Portugal -> coastal country

harbor -> obvious

Nazareth -> second Google result gives a band which is based in Fife, Scotland which is on the coast

9gag -> based in Hong Kong, which is on the coast

herring -> type of fish

Setubal -> coastal city

Presidente -> first Google result gives a brand of beer made in Dominican Republic

Santos -> coastal city

9lives -> first result gives a rapper who is from Hawke's Bay, New Zealand

Somerton -> coastal city

Peru -> coastal country

hamlet -> the Shakespeare play takes place in Denmark

Nazca -> civilization that lived on the coast of Peru

What is the link between IPA and coasts?

@ItsMe West Coast IPA?

12/20/25: PORTO

@2018lebron this one must have been tried like six times.

.

I still believe someone just hits a jackpot at an unexpected time

@NayutaIto /market will the winning guess be a 'random' barely-justified guess?

I looked at the hints a bit today and here are some threads that I find interesting. None of them is complete on its own but perhaps another set of eyes will like them:

  • Santos as the energy company based in Adelaide (the Somerton from the Somerton Man is part of Adelaide)

  • Santos as the port in Brazil

  • Santos as 'Saints', religious figures

  • Setúbal as the region rather than just the specific city, widening the horizon a bit. For example, some people have made guesses related to the port of Sines which is in the Setúbal region and also has energy ties...

  • Generally it looks like herring is associated with places north of Portugal so think more about trading and sea things if you like to play the fishy water connections

  • All the stuff related to coasts and ports can be related to things like sea trade, fishing, undersea cables, beaches, etc. -- there may be other items in this category that are relevant.

  • Those three clues in square brackets, if you follow the IPA/phonetic thought line (specifically with one interpretation I found in the comment section, which may or may not be correct), result in upside down (rotated 180 degrees) letters, ɟ ɔ ɔ, which may warrant more investigation on their own rather than as sounds -- if he wanted to clue sounds, he could have just used the symbols instead.

@Eliza excellent sleuthing

@Eliza it looks like the IPA track was the right one.

If anyone wants to know the easiest way to check if your guess has already been used:

  1. Open this link: https://api.manifold.markets/v0/comments?contractId=gPA029Rcyh

  1. Search in the page for your term

  2. Profit

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