Will Manifold solve my puzzle?
56
1kṀ26k
Dec 31
51%
chance

The solution to the puzzle is a sequence of five letters.

Let's say you're submitting an answer on November 5th, and you wanted to submit "XABDU" as your solution, you would write a comment: "11/5/25: XABDU".

Please do not try to brute-force this. Each user gets one guess per calendar day, I'm not going to check every single time stamp diligently so don't abuse this rule or I will block you from the market and be sad.

I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human) at a random-ish time. If the value of the market is below 50%, I will give a single hint, which I will compile in the description over time. If the value of the market is above 50% (inclusive), I will not give a hint.

I think this puzzle will be hard. The more time that passes without hints, the less likely you will be to solve it. I anticipate that you will need at least ten hints to solve it, possibly far more. You might need to collaborate. You have until the end of the year!

11/3 Hint 1: Portugal

11/4 Hint 2: harbor

11/5 no hint today

11/6 no hint today

11/7 no hint today

11/8 no hint today


EVERYTHING BELOW THIS LINE IS AI SUMMARY GIBBERISH


  • Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will not reply to every guess. If there is no reply to a guess, assume it is not correct.

  • Update 2025-11-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Incorrect guesses will be acknowledged with a like from the creator (rather than a written reply). If there is no response to a guess, assume it is incorrect.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If no one guesses the correct solution by the market close date (midnight on 2025-12-31), the market will resolve NO.

  • Update 2025-11-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If someone DDOS's the chat, the creator will block them from commenting (rather than resolving the market N/A or taking other action).

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11/9/25 Diogo

11/9/25 CEUTA

bought Ṁ3 NO

11/9/25 CANDY

I give this market a 10% chance of resolving yes

11/9/25 SHARP

11/09/2025 CHAUL

11/9/25 AAAAF

25/11/9:DOURO

25/11/9 AAAAE

25/11/9 AAAAC

@Bayesian @Quroe should have made this a 1 month instead of 2 month market lmao

11/9/25 AAAAD

No hint today (11/8) by the way.

You can look here to see if your guess has already been guessed. I have been updating this about once per day. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OzxClKRKKOnwjjAj2nlxx_Xxk-NoUGm24M7ccQcHtqs/edit

@satchlj Where were these guesses? Some are not in the comments here, like LAGOS.

Oh, weird. Wasn't loading for me earlier, oops.

11/8/25: WATER

@Philliesdog duplicate

2025-11-08: AAAAB

11/8/05 BECCA

11/08/25: FEIJO

11/08/25: FIFTH

11/8/25 OCEAN

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

11/07/25 Olhao

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