Tomorrow: NORAT

Today: SEINE

I was about to create this market myself. It makes sense that it would have the same value as the other market but I was curious if the rule about only getting hints at 49% or lower was suppressing the value in a way that could be overcome by a secondary market. I guess not.

@AndrewKeen most of my other comments on this market have been a little bit facetious. You can work with other users to acquire shares of one type in this market and shares of the opposite type in the other market to maintain a balanced overall position while affecting the other market's displayed probability more directly.

but why?

@realDonaldTrump Why what? I'm interested in this question.

@Eliza but why would you make an exact duplicate question

@realDonaldTrump On the other question people keep changing their bet because of some silly rule about 50%. On this one everyone can bet to their true belief because it won't impact the other one. Sometimes this one goes higher or lower, indicating the real belief is different from the fake other market!!!

I'nsider's market

I see this market is quickly trending lower than the other one. I will buy 1000 mana of Yes shares (5000 shares) at 20%, reply to this message if you are interested in being the other 4000 mana for the No shares. I'm not going to leave a standing order on the books.

Alright now that we have an uncluttered comment section which is not flooded with 100s of guesses, we can finally collaborate in semi-privacy!

@Eliza lmao I'm not buying this for a second

@AndrewHebb you can bet to your true probability here.

@Eliza why is this not just a direct arb with the other market?

@bens Hush, we don't need to say those things out loud.

LOUDER! FOR THOSE IN THE BACK!

@bens did anyone do this already?

@Eliza I’m confused, if someone had already done this the other market would have resolved YES