This market refers to https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle.
I will somewhat-regularly check the list of hint in the linked market. If there is a hint listed for a date, that date will resolve YES. If a date is listed as having no hint, that date will resolve NO.
This market refers to the logical day of a hint, rather than the exact time when a hint is given or not (since Ben is not always perfectly timely; e.g. "there was no hint on 12/6" was announced on 12/7).
In unforeseen edge cases, I may resolve some dates PROB or N/A (though obviously I don't expect to do this).
If the puzzle is solved, any remaining dates will resolve N/A.
1,000People are also trading
@jcb I want to ask you to reconsider this:
If the puzzle is solved, subsequent dates will likely resolve NO (I presume that no additional hints will be given).
As a trader, I would be much more likely to know how to bet if I knew that days after the puzzle is solved would resolve N/A rather than No. Otherwise I need to cross this market with some other market that predicts what day it will be solved on before I can bet.
Maybe you can consider that for a little bit and if you like my argument, we could modify the rules?
@Eliza hm. I considered N/A for that case for about .2 seconds before deciding against it. But I guess it's more interesting to isolate this as question about the market price. I'll update since it sounds like Bayesian has no objection.
@jcb Cool!
Now we just need to see if Bayesian is going to thwart any attempts to unlock hints in the main market, to protect his bets in this one!
@Eliza do not be mistaken, I am on the side of the good. i want hints to be unlocked. this is a mere hedge