How many hints will it take for Manifold to solve my puzzle (if they solve it)?
5
150Ṁ101
Dec 31
6%
1-5
21%
6-10
32%
11-15
18%
16-20
14%
21-25
9%
Other

Resolves N/A if the puzzle remains unsolved! (NOT TO OTHER)

https://manifold.markets/bens/will-manifold-solve-my-puzzle?r=YmVucw

Everything below here is AI gibberish

  • Update 2025-11-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Hint distribution mechanism:

    • Creator will check the market once per day at a random-ish time

    • If market value is below 50%: one hint will be given

    • If market value is at or above 50%: no hint will be given

    • Hints will be compiled in the description over time

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Seven days, only two hints?

This is a “how many times will I decide to arbitrarily give arbitrary hints” market

@KJW_01294 we've, uh, painted ourselves in a corner by forcing the market to a point where we don't get hints

@KJW_01294 what do you mean, arbitrarily? Did you read the market description?

@KJW_01294

I will check the market once per day (don't worry if I forget or skip a day, I'm human) at a random-ish time. If the value of the market is below 50%, I will give a single hint, which I will compile in the description over time. If the value of the market is above 50% (inclusive), I will not give a hint.

@bens you should have a link to that market in this one's description

@bens pardon, forgot. I retract my nitpick

But I’ll just say that this too is a “will this market be >50% market,” just a real complicated instance of the “all metamarkets become 50% markets in the end” rule

@KJW_01294 yeah it's a pretty devious reinterpretation of the format, exactly the kind of creativity I was hoping for when I declared a few week moratorium on the bland ones. we've also seen other higher effort "fun" markets pop up!

@Stralor for the record, I do think that a few smart traders are just buying up YES shares at 50% for a couple weeks before allowing it to drop to 49% so that everyone gets hints and the problem can be solved (smart strategy)

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