Ah ha. The solution is to rename the market "Will Isaac King learn of an AI that has been elected to a public office..."

@AaronKreider That would change the result if Isaac dies before 2035

There are millions of elected offices. Millions.

Too broad. You won't know.

@AaronKreider Lol, pretty sure this would become worldwide news, unless you're positing some kind of lizardmen conspiracy (an AI pretending to be a human).

@RobinGreen Dogs win regularly.

@AaronKreider People here are overly obsessed with AI. Normal people care more about dogs. When a dog wins it isn't even national news (in the US).

All you need to do for this is find a race where nobody is running and cast a single write-in vote. This happens all the time.

@AaronKreider I feel like that doesn't really count. What I had envisaged for this type of market was step 1, government makes it legal for AIs to stand for election, step 2, an AI actually gets elected.

@RobinGreen Then it is 1% odds of that. BTW - I'm mostly just arguing from the point of view of trying to improve the rules writing in markets as I'm a professional prediction market trader and there are many examples of very bad rules on Manifold markets (and there is tens of thousands of dollars won and lost each year on badly written rules on Polymarket alone).

The rules need to be specific. Unless you are just creating joke markets.

So don't use the word "any" unless you mean it and have the ability to verify all the instances of it.

Hmm maybe I should create a Bad Rules / Joke Market tag...

as I'm a professional prediction market trader

That's interesting, didn't know those existed. What sites do you trade on?

and there are many examples of very bad rules on Manifold markets

Well manifold wants to let anyone create markets, which necessitates market rules being somewhat vague. Gigacasting's markets are notoriously underspecified but still work, mostly.

@jacksonpolack I'm on PredictIt (mostly dead, but might come back), Polymarket, Insight Prediction, and have been on some others previously (Iowa Election Market, even the UBC Election Market)

@jacksonpolack https://starspangledgamblers.com/ is a fun

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Star Spangled Gamblers

We Bet Real Money on Politics. It’s Fun.

Gonna change this to specify public election, that ok with everyone?

"elected" wink wink

What if it holds (actual position in) office but wasn't elected? Resolves NO?

@Dreamingpast Hmm, good question. If it's a position where public elections aren't run, but rather one or a small group of people simply chooses who gets the position, should that count?

@IsaacKing yep, i think so

@IsaacKing I think a literal interpretation of your title would include this - eg in UK local government, some mayors are 'elected' by the elected councillors, rather than by the electorate.

It is not how I initially interpreted your title though and others may have shared my initial assumption that this referred to a public electorate.

Up to you whether you prioritise common-sense interpretation or maximum extent of the literal interpretation.