Close date updated to 2040-12-31 11:59 pm
@Planarian It would be equally logical to bet NO and sell when the price goes down. It will never resolve for either side, so the two are equivalent.
@whalelang My intuition is that this will become a stock market too, but not necessarily around 50% all the time
@Conflux Yeah, I'm curious how people are thinking about the pricing of this. Since it's guaranteed to resolve YES at some point (modulo v. unlikely misclick errors) I guess we could compare it to the various free money discount rate questions. These seem to give about 1 or 2% per year, so the current price implies the market expects this to take about 5 years to pay out. But then the higher it's bid up the more expensive it is to push down to below 1% so the less likely it is to resolve YES...