Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?

1kṀ6322

2075

85%

chance

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?

72% chance

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?

89% chance

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?

65% chance

Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?

38% chance

Will humanity wipe out superintelligent AI before 2040?

15% chance

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

31% chance

IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

33% chance

Will we see the emergence of a 'super AI network' before 2035 ?

72% chance

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

24% chance

Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?

Sort by:

It's called Trump. Resolve YES.

predictedNO

Have you guys still not gotten rid of Mark Ingraham‽ I left for 4 months!

How do you define existential catastrophe? Does this set of market resolve at first superinteligence even if it causes such an event soon after?

predictedNO

@CodeandSolder An existential catastrophe would likely prevent me from resolving this market, so it's not a functional difference from not having that there; it just reminds people to take that into account.

@IsaacKing in real world obviously yes, but I assumed we ignored boring practical aspects like that, much like with markets ending in 2075 vs 2100

predictedNO

@CodeandSolder I don't understand the question then.

@IsaacKing the question is is it (conditional on no existential catastrophe by 2075) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075) or (conditional on no existential catastrophe before there is a superinteligence) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075)