Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
51
162
Ṁ3.1KṀ995
2075
68%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@CodeandSolder An existential catastrophe would likely prevent me from resolving this market, so it's not a functional difference from not having that there; it just reminds people to take that into account.
@IsaacKing in real world obviously yes, but I assumed we ignored boring practical aspects like that, much like with markets ending in 2075 vs 2100
@IsaacKing the question is is it (conditional on no existential catastrophe by 2075) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075) or (conditional on no existential catastrophe before there is a superinteligence) (will there be a superinteligence by 2075)
More related questions
Related questions
Conditional on our universe being a simulation, will the simulation stop by 2050?
29% chance
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
29% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
18% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
63% chance
Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
35% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2040?
46% chance
Will any rights be granted to a silicon-based intelligence before 2050?
60% chance
Will General Artificial Intelligence happen before 2035?
44% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2050?
43% chance
Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?
38% chance