By 2022-04-01 Manifold representative will admit that reward function used as of 2022-02-28 results in silly results for nearly impossible/certain events.
11
39
Ṁ188resolved Mar 3
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given odds of troll market or missclick are noticeable
AND return is abyssal for markets at 97% or 10% and someone predicting obviously true event
AND it is necessary to lock up money for some time
there is no incentive to predict that unlikely/certain events like https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2 or https://manifold.markets/colorednoise/will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-in-a-p or https://manifold.markets/AYev/will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc or https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse or
Events that already happened sitting at 93% (Kiev invasion by Russia) are embarrassing for a prediction market.
It is barely profitable that chance for exploding nuclear weapon over populated area is below 4%
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Resolves as yes if by 2022-04-10 comment will be posted here demonstrating that condition from the title was fulfilled.
(according London time zone if near edge)
No idea how to solve it but "Will aliens land before March 2022?" at 1% and being unable to profit from pushing it lower and risking that it would mistakenly resolve as yes is extra-silly.
Mar 2, 11:09am: loans are a weird case. Is it changing specifically reward function that I mentioned in the title and condition?
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It's plausible that adding some decimal points to the UI without actually changing the math would be sufficient to make these feel less silly. The implied probability with 250 Yes and 6400 No (the approximate maximum of No on the "aliens before march 2022" market, reached around the 13th) is 250^2/(250^2+6400^2) = 0.15%, but the UI rounds that up to 1%. Also relevant is that the starting ante (presumably 50 M$) is a significant portion of the yes in this case, so the market creator is partially to blame for even the implied odds being that high.
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