
If Manifold begins allowing real-money withdrawals, will its accuracy improve?
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I'll allow any reasonable type of scoring to demonstrate this, such as the ones described here. (With appropriate corrections for multiple-comparisons bias if someone tries a bunch of different metrics.)
Proving causality would be next-to-impossible for something like this, so I'm only going to require that there be enough of a difference between the score before the change and the score afterwards that it seems plausible this was the cause.
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