Before 2026, will Manifold innovate its way to a market correctly pricing a 1-in-100,000 random chance of Yes as 0.001%?
32
1kṀ65652026
1.8%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the start of 2026, I'll create another market that lasts 1 week. After that week I will go to random.org and draw a whole random number from 1 to 100,000, inclusively. If it's a 100,000, then I resolve that future question YES. Any other number and I will resolve NO.
Then after that, this market will resolve to YES if the 1-in-100,000 market was correctly priced at 0.001%. Any significant digits after the "1" will be ignored, for simplicity. But if that market doesn't converge on 0.001% within its 1-week duration, then this market will resolve NO.
The correct 0.001% pricing must be displayed in the Manifold UI as the market price. User-made derivatives or tricks (such as amplified markets) wouldn't count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Manifold add a way for creators to initialize binary markets at non-50% probabilities in the UI? (by July 2025)
9% chance
Will Manifold implement another way to handle conditional markets before 2026?
39% chance
If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?
45% chance
In what year will Manifold reach 1,000,000 total markets?
Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?
9% chance
Will Manifold ever be worth $1T? [% / 10]
9% chance