Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?
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resolved Jan 1
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It's not fair that there are/were so many markets about Russians entering Kyiv, but none about Ukrainians entering Moscow. Now there is. See also: https://manifold.markets/Yev/will-putin-be-the-leader-of-russia https://manifold.markets/Nostradamnedus/will-putin-be-overthrown-during-202
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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@Yev can you confirm that, as with the similar Kyiv market, this requires them to enter in a military capacity?
Given odds of troll market or missclick are noticeable
AND return is abyssal for markets at 97% or 10% and someone predicting obviously true event
AND it is necessary to lock up money for some time
there is no incentive to predict that unlikely/certain events like https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2 or https://manifold.markets/colorednoise/will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-in-a-p or https://manifold.markets/AYev/will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc or https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse or
Events that already happened sitting at 93% (Kiev invasion by Russia) are embarrassing for a prediction market.
It is barely profitable that chance for exploding nuclear weapon over populated area is below 4%
I opened https://manifold.markets/M/by-20220401-manifold-representative to vent about it.
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