By 2022-04-01 Manifold representative will admit that reward function used as of 2022-02-28 results in silly results for nearly impossible/certain events.
11
100Ṁ188resolved Mar 3
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Given odds of troll market or missclick are noticeable
AND return is abyssal for markets at 97% or 10% and someone predicting obviously true event
AND it is necessary to lock up money for some time
there is no incentive to predict that unlikely/certain events like https://manifold.markets/GustavoLacerda/will-russia-invade-kiev-by-end-of-2 or https://manifold.markets/colorednoise/will-a-nuclear-bomb-detonate-in-a-p or https://manifold.markets/AYev/will-ukrainian-troops-enter-in-mosc or https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-there-be-a-major-flareup-worse or
Events that already happened sitting at 93% (Kiev invasion by Russia) are embarrassing for a prediction market.
It is barely profitable that chance for exploding nuclear weapon over populated area is below 4%
----------------------------------------------------
Resolves as yes if by 2022-04-10 comment will be posted here demonstrating that condition from the title was fulfilled.
(according London time zone if near edge)
No idea how to solve it but "Will aliens land before March 2022?" at 1% and being unable to profit from pushing it lower and risking that it would mistakenly resolve as yes is extra-silly.
Mar 2, 11:09am: loans are a weird case. Is it changing specifically reward function that I mentioned in the title and condition?
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