Will a nuclear bomb detonate in a populated area during 2022?

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ74
2		Ṁ15
3		Ṁ9
4		Ṁ8
5		Ṁ6

if we all die, at least I'm make 20 M$ or whatever.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550 It would be irresponsible and anti-Bayesian to think that the risk of nuclear tensions went DOWN after this report from the AP. Mind you, the chance of an actual nuclear strike may still be minuscule, maybe less than the present 5%, but the direction of this bet should have actually gone up, not down, given recent developments. Perhaps the original probability should have been 0% and now it's at 0.1%. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. The order to put Russia’s nuclear weapons in an increased state of readiness for launch raised fears that the crisis could boil over into nuclear warfare, whether by design or miscalculation.

Yoink.

The base rate for this has to be pretty low. It's been almost 70 years since a nuke has been used in anger, and if anything, now we're less likely to use one because we understand their power more.

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