Will a nuclear bomb detonate in a populated area during 2022?
Politics
67
220
Ṁ100
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO
Resolves as yes if a nuclear weapon detonates and kills upwards of 200 individuals during 2022.
Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ74
2Ṁ15
3Ṁ9
4Ṁ8
5Ṁ6
4 Comments
53 Holders
331 Trades
Sort by:
bought Ṁ1 of YES
if we all die, at least I'm make 20 M$ or whatever.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-business-europe-moscow-2e4e1cf784f22b6afbe5a2f936725550 It would be irresponsible and anti-Bayesian to think that the risk of nuclear tensions went DOWN after this report from the AP. Mind you, the chance of an actual nuclear strike may still be minuscule, maybe less than the present 5%, but the direction of this bet should have actually gone up, not down, given recent developments. Perhaps the original probability should have been 0% and now it's at 0.1%. KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — In a dramatic escalation of East-West tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces put on high alert Sunday in response to what he called “aggressive statements” by leading NATO powers. The order to put Russia’s nuclear weapons in an increased state of readiness for launch raised fears that the crisis could boil over into nuclear warfare, whether by design or miscalculation.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
Yoink.
bought Ṁ1 of NO
The base rate for this has to be pretty low. It's been almost 70 years since a nuke has been used in anger, and if anything, now we're less likely to use one because we understand their power more.

Related in Politics

See more Politics questions

More related questions