Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?
83
97
185
resolved Jan 23
Resolved
NO
Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ331
2Ṁ129
3Ṁ94
4Ṁ91
5Ṁ86
Sort by:

Are we using Metaculus's definition of an invasion (100+ troops cross the border into Kiev)? See: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/

bought Ṁ1 of NO
@GustavoLacerda Has the failed invasion that happened and withdrawn counts as YES already?
bought Ṁ20 of YES
this can be now resolved as yes, right?
bought Ṁ100 of YES
Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(

@Yev Lol, "Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(" :D

@Yev Lol, “Lol, "Lol, "lock up my money for almost a year" :(" :D” ;)

(also, @GustavoLacerda ping)

bought Ṁ5 of NO
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade I would bet more, but I don't want to lock up my money for almost a year.