Will Russia invade Kiev by end of 2022?
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resolved Jan 23
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Close date updated to 2022-12-31 11:59 pm
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Are we using Metaculus's definition of an invasion (100+ troops cross the border into Kiev)? See: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/
@GustavoLacerda
Has the failed invasion that happened and withdrawn counts as YES already?
Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/alexlyzhov/conditional-on-ukraine-being-invade
I would bet more, but I don't want to lock up my money for almost a year.
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