Will @SimonGrayson be trustworthy-ish/moderator by end of 2023?
Will @SimonGrayson be trustworthy-ish/moderator by end of 2023?
22
530Ṁ4072resolved Jan 1
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Resolves YES if they get the trustworthy-ish badge by the end of 2023.
Any change in name to trustworthy-ish/moderator badge will still count as YES
Resolves NO if they do not. Also resolves NO if they get banned.
Updated Title To Reflect Change In Name Of TW to MOD (11/7/2023)
Updated Description To Reflect Clarification Of Badge Name (11/11/2023)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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