The Bank of England meets on 21st September to set interest rates.
The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.
The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate at 5.25% or lower it
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0599143ef1b0
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0d91564112fa
/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-7950eca8e64c
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I think we can call this a shock decision since this market was trading at well over 90% a couple of days ago!
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/21/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-hold
Resolves to NO
@SimonGrayson I'll try to post here later (not today) how much traders were pricing before yesterday inflation print. But given that Manifold was 15% above real money markets when I checked, it's likely probabilities here were overstated before the solution
@CromlynGames Yes - I bought some NO a few days ago (when I thought it was good value at 92%) and I bought some more NO as soon as the BoE announced their decision.
I don’t bet on any of my own markets if they might be subjective or based on my opinion, but I’ll bet on them when it’s objective and I’ve got the same info as everyone else!
On a knife edge with three hours to go!
Lots of tea-leaf reading from the likes of the Guardian:
Will anything leak before the decision is announced?
The market for the next decision is here if you want to trade it even before we know what today’s decision is:
Big decision tomorrow!
This has gone from 92% to mid-60s… A lot of people seem to think that today’s drop in inflation (particularly the drop in core inflation) gives the BoE the option to take a breather!
Does anybody have a tool like FedWatch, but for the BoE? I'm too poor to have a Bloomberg terminal.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
@palcu I think our equivalent of Fed Watch is waiting for people like Ed Conway or Merryn Somerset Webb to post screenshots from the Bloomberg terminal on Twitter!
The dream is that one day the best way to gauge interest rate expectations will be to come to the relevant markets on Manifold…
This is currently around 55% based on latest CPI data
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