Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 21st September meeting?
resolved Sep 21

The Bank of England meets on 21st September to set interest rates.

The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.

The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate at 5.25% or lower it

Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:




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Noit avatar
Noitsold Ṁ12 of YES


CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barrypredicted NO

@Noit I wish I'd gone harder

SirCryptomind avatar
SirCryptomindbought Ṁ100 of YES
Conor Mcgregor GIF by UFC
palcu avatar
Alex Palcuiepredicted YES

@SirCryptomind a bunch of cowards!

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonbought Ṁ500 of NO

I think we can call this a shock decision since this market was trading at well over 90% a couple of days ago!


Resolves to NO

MP avatar
MPpredicted NO

@SimonGrayson I'll try to post here later (not today) how much traders were pricing before yesterday inflation print. But given that Manifold was 15% above real money markets when I checked, it's likely probabilities here were overstated before the solution

CromlynGames avatar
Patrick Barrypredicted NO

@SimonGrayson did you just buy a load of no and then resolve the market?

MP avatar
MPpredicted NO

@CromlynGames what's the issue?

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO

@CromlynGames Yes - I bought some NO a few days ago (when I thought it was good value at 92%) and I bought some more NO as soon as the BoE announced their decision.

I don’t bet on any of my own markets if they might be subjective or based on my opinion, but I’ll bet on them when it’s objective and I’ve got the same info as everyone else!

DavidI avatar
Davepredicted NO

Let's gooo

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted YES

On a knife edge with three hours to go!

Lots of tea-leaf reading from the likes of the Guardian:


Will anything leak before the decision is announced?

The market for the next decision is here if you want to trade it even before we know what today’s decision is:

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO

Big decision tomorrow!

This has gone from 92% to mid-60s… A lot of people seem to think that today’s drop in inflation (particularly the drop in core inflation) gives the BoE the option to take a breather!

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO

@palcu I think our equivalent of Fed Watch is waiting for people like Ed Conway or Merryn Somerset Webb to post screenshots from the Bloomberg terminal on Twitter!

SimonGrayson avatar
Simon Graysonpredicted NO

The dream is that one day the best way to gauge interest rate expectations will be to come to the relevant markets on Manifold…

MP avatar
MPpredicted NO

@palcu BBG is at 42%, just checked and I am betting NO @ 50% because of that.