Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 21st September meeting?
➕
Plus
77
Ṁ15k
resolved Sep 21
Resolved
NO

The Bank of England meets on 21st September to set interest rates.

The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level of 5.25%.

The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate at 5.25% or lower it

Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0599143ef1b0

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-0d91564112fa

/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-7950eca8e64c

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Ṁ1,000
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Oof.

predictedNO

@Noit I wish I'd gone harder

Conor Mcgregor GIF by UFC
predictedYES

@SirCryptomind a bunch of cowards!

I think we can call this a shock decision since this market was trading at well over 90% a couple of days ago!

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/21/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-hold

Resolves to NO

predictedNO

@SimonGrayson I'll try to post here later (not today) how much traders were pricing before yesterday inflation print. But given that Manifold was 15% above real money markets when I checked, it's likely probabilities here were overstated before the solution

predictedNO

@SimonGrayson did you just buy a load of no and then resolve the market?

predictedNO

@CromlynGames what's the issue?

predictedNO

@CromlynGames Yes - I bought some NO a few days ago (when I thought it was good value at 92%) and I bought some more NO as soon as the BoE announced their decision.

I don’t bet on any of my own markets if they might be subjective or based on my opinion, but I’ll bet on them when it’s objective and I’ve got the same info as everyone else!

predictedNO

Let's gooo

predictedYES

On a knife edge with three hours to go!

Lots of tea-leaf reading from the likes of the Guardian:

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2023/sep/21/bank-of-england-interest-rates-inflation-pound-bonds-next-public-borrowing-business-live

Will anything leak before the decision is announced?

The market for the next decision is here if you want to trade it even before we know what today’s decision is:

predictedNO

Big decision tomorrow!

This has gone from 92% to mid-60s… A lot of people seem to think that today’s drop in inflation (particularly the drop in core inflation) gives the BoE the option to take a breather!

predictedNO

@palcu I think our equivalent of Fed Watch is waiting for people like Ed Conway or Merryn Somerset Webb to post screenshots from the Bloomberg terminal on Twitter!

predictedNO

The dream is that one day the best way to gauge interest rate expectations will be to come to the relevant markets on Manifold…

predictedNO

@palcu BBG is at 42%, just checked and I am betting NO @ 50% because of that.

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