Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of June 2023? (M$10,000 subsidy)
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resolved Jun 3
Resolved
YES

Update - this market has been added to the Manifold showcase and the Manifold team have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the market.

This means that there's a lot of money to be made if the current odds are wrong, or to whoever is the first to realise that events are changing the odds. It also means that you can make much bigger bets without moving the odds by as much!


Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months.

At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see /jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised

This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised:

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c

/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4

/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc

If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES.

If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it.

If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of June, this market resolves to YES.

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predicted YES

Biden Could Sign Debt-Limit Bill as Soon as Saturday

  • Treasury signals weekend signing won’t disrupt payments

  • Measure is in process of being formally delivered to president

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-02/biden-could-sign-debt-bill-as-soon-as-saturday-white-house-says#xj4y7vzkg

The Senate will hold 11 amendment votes, 10R 1D each vote 10 mins. Afterwards a vote to pass will occur.

Schumer: "I am pleased -- so pleased -- to announce that both sides have just locked in an agreement that enables the Senate to pass legislation tonight, avoiding default.. America can breath a sigh of relief."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXQmu3jzDf4

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have made it clear they want to move ahead with a vote on the bill as early as Thursday, but would need an agreement from all 100 senators to do so. In the Senate, any one lawmaker can delay a swift vote.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/politics/senate-vote-debt-limit-latest/index.html

Once the Senate passes the measure, it can be sent to President Joe Biden to be signed into law.

House Has Adjourned

The Bill Has Passed The House "On Motion To Suspend The Rules And Pass, As Amended"

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind that's a different bill

https://www.c-span.org/networks/

THE VOTE IN THE HOUSE ON RULES FOR DEBATE HAS STARTED

The House approves the rule for debate on the debt limit bill 241-187, with 52 Democrats supporting it and 29 Republicans opposing it. A vote on the bipartisan measure is expected later tonight at 7:15pm ET.

Final Vote In The House Possibly Delayed Until 8:30pm ET

predicted YES

Shameless promo, vibe check market. Senators going to put on a show or actually do their job?

/Gen/us-debt-ceiling-will-the-fiscal-res

predicted YES

@Gen I think that most of the Senators would tell you that putting on a show IS there job.

House Rules Committee Hearing on Debt Limit and Federal Spending Legislation

https://www.c-span.org/networks/?channel=c-span-3

This is NOT a vote, but just the rules committee hearing.

A vote will be live on c-span at some point shall that time comes.

https://www.c-span.org/networks/

Passed the first stage, The Rules Committee.

Debt ceiling bill clears key hurdle in the House, teeing up final vote

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/30/debt-ceiling-deal-updates.html?__source=androidappshare

Word on the street is it will pass Congress & Senate and be on Bidens Desk to sign on or by Monday June 5th 2023.

The only hold up are those in the House Freedom Caucus, but by my count, low end being 12 members, high end being 48 members, the bill would still pass.

218 Votes are needed to pass the House.

There are 213 Democrats and 222 Republicans. You only need 5 republicans to vote YES.

The Freedom Caucus members will have the loudest voice in media/news saying no no no no, but their votes are not needed for it to pass the House.

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind Here are some markets on how that first vote in the House goes:

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7

/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b

So the markets think that the 218 threshold (which would be even lower if there are any abstentions) is going to be passed pretty comfortably!

@SimonGrayson My Guess would be 192 Dem YES + 157 Rep YES = 349 ; That 350 vote market should see good action!

So far there are 38 GOP Members stating publicly they will vote NO. Seems the Freedom Caucus GOP Members are still the biggest voice against the passage, while AOC and 6-7 other progressive Dems have said they will also vote NO.
With "tag-alongs" that would be about 66 NO Votes from each side combined. Still plenty of YES votes available for it to pass.

My revised prediction is: 320 YES / 104 NO / 11 Abstain

Passes the House.

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