Israel-Iran 2025 war prop bets
270
6.7kṀ84k
Dec 31
96%
Donald Trump declares victory
95%
Iranian General killed inside Iran
84%
Fordow facility successfully bombed
84%
Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed
83%
Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours
82%
USA conducts a second bombing in Iran
74%
Iranian government official declares victory
70%
Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025
68%
USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution
65%
Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body
62%
US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year
62%
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
61%
>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict
58%
A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%
58%
Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
58%
China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal
55%
US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict
54%
Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day
54%
Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar
54%
Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Add your own bets.

I will resolve according to publicly available information and my best judgment.

Will be resolved at end of 2025 at the latest.

  • Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer "Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform", the creator has specified:

    • An oil refinery is not considered a power plant.

    • The market refers to gas offshore platforms.

  • Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the answer 'Iran successfully bomb an Israeli power plant or offshore platform', a power plant must be for civilian use.

  • Update 2025-06-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they would resolve this market to YES if the Israeli government dissolves for any reason before the market's end date.

  • Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding a potential bombing of the Fordow facility, the creator has specified their evidence standard for resolution:

    • A statement from a single political figure (e.g., Donald Trump) is not sufficient on its own.

    • The creator requires confirmation that the facility was destroyed before resolving.

  • Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an answer related to a 'successful bombing' of the Fordow facility, a strike will not be considered successful if the centrifuges are not destroyed.

  • Update 2025-06-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For answers proposed by users, the creator has stated they will resolve the answer based on the proposing user's terms and decision.

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When the misspellings start and you're feeling too big to fail

bought Ṁ50 YES

Maxar's satellite imagery shows US projectiles clearly penetrating the surface of Natanz Nuclear Enrichment Facility in Iran.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Lemming does this need to be claimed by Iran to resolve yes?

I guess it doesn't specifically target Jews/Israel is, so no? It was claimed by IS.

New talking points to adhere to:

@someone8Nngy do you want to maybe reword this to something like "Cease-fire by September 29th" (September 29 is 100 days from June 21.). It's currently worded really strangely as it can't resolve to a number, it has to resolve Yes, No, or N/A

@Lemming I will leave this up to you whether you think this resolves UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire & China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal at this point.

If it needs to actually proceed to a vote or if this constitutes proposal in your eyes is up to you.

bought Ṁ50 YES

@BlackCrusade You proposed the question, so I will resolve it based on your terms and decision.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Lemming neither question says it has to be voted on or passed, so in my eyes both would resolve as Yes.

@Lemming would you also like to resolve the China one as China is one of the proposers of the cease-fire which meets the criteria for "China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal"

sold Ṁ51 NO

Being closed for 0 hours (not closed) would resolve this as yes in my eyes.

bought Ṁ20 YES

@BlackCrusade yeah that's what it means. Basically strait remains open throughout with maybe some intermittent closures -- question resolves yes

@BlackCrusade Military censorship in israel makes it so that if these got destroyed in the ballistic missile attacks on israeli bases we most likely wont find out about it

@Samaritan this would require a reputable news source to report on it. If a reputable news source reports it happened, it can resolve Yes. Otherwise it would resolve no.

bought Ṁ20 NO

@BlackCrusade yeah, i agree that is how it would resolve. I'm conflicted now because I believe it has likely happened but unlikely it'll get reported. I feel i'm more betting on coverage of the event rather than the event. Which is okay but I wish there was a way to find out for sure.

@Samaritan I agree it would be great to have truthful resolutions 😂

@Samaritan we would but only in at least a week after the fact

bought Ṁ300 YES

@BlackCrusade why are people selling? It went down to 98% and middles have already hit

@noney not sure why but sometimes people don't want to wait for a resolution and want to cash out. I do it all the time. The difference in mana is often negligible

@BlackCrusade this already happened many times. Can you please clarify?

@Lemming it needs to happen again, after June 21st (the date the question was added)

So any missile strikes that occured before the question was added don't count, and it resolved yes only if they actually land, being intercepted doesn't count.

So any missile that successfully delivers ordnance within 50km of either city and does so after June 21 would resolve this as yes.

Does this make sense?

@Lemming this would resolve yes at this point.

@traders waiting for some confirmation that the Fordow bombing actually destroyed the facility. Trump saying so is not enough.

Post sources here if you have any

@Lemming This is from the IAEA. Don't know if that's enough to resolve but I think that's the latest...

The extent of damage to the Fordow uranium enrichment facility – built deep inside a mountain in central Iran – was not immediately possible to assess in view of its underground location and the penetrating nature of the bombs used.

“It is clear that Fordow was also directly impacted, but the degree of damage inside the uranium enrichment halls can’t be determined with certainty,” Director General Grossi said.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-on-developments-in-iran-5

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