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@traders I intended to resolve the remaining answers as NA due to them being either ambiguous, inconclusive, or hard to find answers for.

If you have any thoughts or suggestions regarding the resolution of any of them, please post them.

@Lemming major media sources Iraq 2.0 seems like a no. Im sure someone used the phrase at some point but its not been a substantial way the conflict is talked about

@Lemming isn't "Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites" clearly NO?

@traders I have resolved most of the easier ones, but this market have quite a lot of answers. I would appreciate opinions regarding how to resolve the remaining ones.

@Lemming

Here’s what I got.

500+ Iranian civilians killed

There is no authoritative source showing 500+ confirmed civilian deaths attributable directly to the Israel–Iran conflict in 2025.

Official Iranian tallies vary, with Reuters reporting ~935 total Iranian deaths during the June 2025 strikes, including some civilians but with no independent verification of how many were civilians vs military. Independent human rights reporting suggests under 100 civilian deaths in specific documented incidents.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/935-people-killed-israeli-strikes-iran-iran-judiciary-spokesperson-says-2025-06-30/

https://hengaw.net/en/reports-and-statistics-1/2025/06/article-9

Because civilian attribution and verified numbers remain unclear, this does not meet the high bar for “500+ Iranian civilians killed.”

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement … less than 25%

Multiple reputable polls in June/July 2025 show low support for US military involvement:

An Axios-reported Economist/YouGov poll found only 16% support direct US military involvement with 60% opposed.

YouGov reported only 16% think the US military should get involved in the conflict.

A Quinnipiac poll showed 42% support for joining strikes (meaning 58% do not support), depending on question wording.

These indicate at least one qualifying poll below 25% support exists, justifying a YES on the <25% poll market.

Iran launches a cruise missile

I couldn’t find any evidence of non-ballistic missiles.

For markets on:

• Russia stationing combat jets in Iran

• Russian delivery of S-400 to Iran

• UN Security Council ceasefire resolution

• Iran exiting the NPT

• New UNSC arms embargo

• Iran seizing a G7-flagged ship

There are no reputable reports of any of these events having happened in 2025 or by year end that I can find, so they should probably resolve NO.

@BlackCrusade I’m inclined to resolve this as NA. According to the HRNA there are 436 civilian deaths + 319 “unknown” deaths.

@BlackCrusade most of the answers in this market are yours. I will need your help with resolving your markets since it’s quite a lot.

according to public sources, the war between Israel and Iran in 2025 ended with a ceasefire that took effect on 24 June 2025, bringing the 12-day conflict to a close

@Lemming https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-857866 https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/missile-impact-near-strategic-electrical-facility-in-south-causes-outages/
https://www.jns.org/iranian-missile-launched-at-central-israel-intercepted/

"The Israel Electric Corporation says that due to an Iranian ballistic missile impact near a “strategic infrastructure facility” in southern Israel, there are power disruptions in several towns in the area."

Israeli power infrastructure damaged by Iran missile attacks | The Jerusalem Post

Iranian media hailed the alleged fire, insisting it had been their target for attacks in the North, despite the majority of impacted rockets landing on residential homes.

If the ceasefire is broken and hostilities restart in 2025, will these bets include changes in the new escalation? What if the hostilities restart but continue into 2026, would events that happen in 2026 change resolutions?

@Samaritan this market should be concluded in Jan 1 2026 regardless of events.

How the various bets will be resolved depends on the wording. Every bet has a different creator, and I will ask each of them to resolve it.

Do you have a question regarding a specific bet?

@Samaritan regarding to my own bets, I will resolve YES if the event happened from the bet’s creation to the market’s deadline.

@PoliticalEconomyPK Resolves NO.

@MugaSofer why do you think this?

@JoshuaWilkes June 2025 is over?

Edit: you know what, I'm just dumb, ofc if the ceasefire holds it'll resolve YES.

@BlackCrusade been 7 days and the cease-fire was honored

@EladEvenShani ping @Lemming

I wish there was a feature to spin off these props by the creator into their own market instead of having to navigate here and search for them each time. Or the viewer has the option to mark it in a way where it gets its own page to track independently of other bets.

I'm lookin at Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister) and it's a pain each time to see if anyone has bet on it.

@Samaritan it'd be nice if there was a "sort by my bets" option in the sort drop down.

Iran lists 610 killed and 4700 injured.

Israel lists 29 killed and 3238 injured.

Added up this results in 8,577 casualties in total at this point. If the ceasefire doesn't last it seems very likely that this could easily cross 10,000.

@Lemming

israeli stock market

Hopefully it is okay to share here, but I have another prop bet market for world conflicts outside of just the Iran-Israel war for those interested:

https://manifold.markets/BlackCrusade/world-conflict-prop-bets-20252027?r=QmxhY2tDcnVzYWRl

I don’t think most traders here get how likely this has become post-war.

Reasoning: gov’t is getting close to its end, ruling coalition likely to use the war for favorable election framing.