Manifold Markets might become obsolete in 2023 because of its heavily biased userbase. Markets are not balanced.
In December 2023 I will look at the most common markets and topics of 2023 and compare them with real-life events.
If I feel the topics were balanced this market resolved to NO. If the markets were too niche and focused around a few main topics only this market resolves to YES.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ178 | |
| 2 | Ṁ99 | |
| 3 | Ṁ84 | |
| 4 | Ṁ76 | |
| 5 | Ṁ66 |
well a recent like on my below comment brought me back here 😅
any new feelings on this one @EvanDaniel? I can't even remember how I got involved in this market I don't hold a position in, but that's not exactly off-brand for me and now I need closure lol
(my personal feeling is still that while one could possibly make a case for the small sphere of topical markets mentioned being something an echo chamber, Manifold in the entirety of the platform is not and obviously hasn't gone "obsolete" because of a "heavily biased user base." and I think it would be pretty easy to pull topics via tags over the last year without too much investment?)
Manifold in the entirety of the platform is not and obviously hasn't gone "obsolete" because of a "heavily biased user base."
I'm interpreting that part as background info / what motivated the question, only slightly as resolution criteria. It's not mentioned in the "Resolves Yes if..." section or the title.
and I think it would be pretty easy to pull topics via tags over the last year without too much investment?
If someone wanted to do that, that would be neat! But not required, we can just resolve N/A eventually or something...
@EvanDaniel yeah I think the challenge is that the criteria and the question are a bit out of alignment
I'll see if I can grab a moment tomorrow to pull topics (looks like @Akzzz123 did something similar a month ago) even if only for my own curiosity
@ClubmasterTransparent Maybe they were only here for the 🍿 and the echo chamber and they lost interest because it got boring!
has Manifold become obsolete due to a heavily biased user base? 🙃
I think the PotY market brought out a spectrum of perspectives (definitely showed some AI bias but a whole collection of voices and perspectives showed up there) so that was at least somewhat of a litmus test..
would be fun to see the results of a market analysis like the creator said, though, if nothing but for curiosity's sake. there are definitely a ton of Destiny and AI markets but I have a feeling an objective look would resolve this No.
@shankypanky I would love to find a way to resolve this in a quasi-objective fashion! Resolving N/A would feel like a shame!
@EvanDaniel agree! I wonder how the market creator envisioned reviewing an entire year of markets against global/IRL events. sounds like such a headache and really convoluted from where I'm sitting lol
@shankypanky "You volunteered to review an entire year of markets and we are waiting. Plz resolve k thx."
@EvanDaniel don't forget "an entire year of markets cross referenced with world events and there are a lot of people concerned about EOY bankruptcy and there are 69 market positions on the edge of their seat no pressure but when will the answer come? k thx"
@shankypanky Will Manifold make real the vision, the Darker Magic From Before The Dawn Of Time, that all humans will have free access to the marketplace of ideas and enough intelligent people will engage and make it so? Or will this earnest, purposeful crowd of AI enthusiasts and Destiny-interested and serious prediction geeks I mean that in a GOOD way just fizzle out? Who knows.
If the ai enthusiasts and destiny fans can’t be outearned by unbiased outsiders, that seems to conclusively show they aren’t in a reality-distorting echo-chamber. Plenty of disagreement even within those communities, lots of mainstream news-worthy markets popping up, etc. But yeah, since those communities largely got first on the site, they’ve had more time doing capital accumulation, and so their markets may be larger than their direct proportion of the manifold population. I’d argue that doesn’t make it an echo-chamber, and is unsurprising and normal considering the early adoption demographic of manifold
@TheBayesian "If I feel the topics were balanced this market resolved to NO." Are the topics balanced? Unequivocally they were not. Therefore this should not resolve NO.
Topics look pretty balanced to me and reflect the major real world events. A majority of the questions are not related to AI/Destiny.
If you sort by 24 hour volume or tending, the proportion of markets related to AI/Destiny is even less.
Of course there will be some skew towards the largest communities but I highly doubt it satisfies the requirements to label Manifold as an echo chamber of AI/Destiny fans.
Nor does it meet the requirement for YES.
If the markets were too niche and focused around a few main topics only this market resolves to YES.
Topics that I can see in top 50 sorted by traders:
US Presidential Elections
LK 99
Andrew Tate
US Politics
Putin
Russia Ukraine war
Nuclear weapons
Climate change
Israel Hamas war
Elon Musk
OpenAI drama
SBF
Neuralink
@Luigisopa Of the top 50 binary markets on Manifold by total number of traders, 21 involve AI or Destiny. Is this disproportionate enough to resolve YES?
If the markets were too niche and focused around a few main topics only this market resolves to YES.
Topics that I can see in top 50 sorted by traders:
US Presidential Elections
LK 99
Andrew Tate
US Politics
Putin
Russia Ukraine war
Nuclear weapons
Climate change
Israel Hamas war
Elon Musk
OpenAI drama
SBF
Neuralink
@Akzzz123 Doesn’t really dispute the fact that almost half are about just two niche topics
Lol.
If the markets were too niche and focused around a few main topics only this market resolves to YES.
There's clearly a wide variety of topics.
It's not even a majority in your cherry picked sample. It's even lesser if you look at multiple response questions or at trending/last 24 hours.
@Akzzz123 Do AI and Destiny account for 42% of real life / newsworthy events?
No.
Do they account for 42% of the most popular markets of 2023?
Yes.
Feel free to do statistics on a different sample that I didn't cherry-pick and let me know what you find.
@benshindel in fact, I just looked at the top 50 TRENDING OPEN markets and found that 24/50 were on AI or Destiny... so even more extreme bias. Lol, idk why i'm arguing with an anon account on here, but, provide actual evidence or I'm not gonna bother replying.
This is from your own cherry-picked sample.
Does this really look like few main topics to you?
US Presidential Elections
LK 99
Andrew Tate
US Politics
Putin
Russia Ukraine war
Nuclear weapons
Climate change
Israel Hamas war
Elon Musk
OpenAI drama
SBF
Neuralink
You're free to ride on the temporary Openai drama but I'm not counting them since it's a topic that is clearly important to people who don't necessarily follow AI otherwise.
Once you have consulted a dictionary feel free to respond in words that a human can understand
Does this really look like few main topics to you?