Resolves to the percentage reported by the most current publicly available community-wide survey by the end of 2025.
In the 2020 survey, 29% of respondents were non-male:
https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/eas2020-demographics
In the 2022 survey, 34% if respondents were non-male:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/AJDgnPXqZ48eSCjEQ/ea-survey-2022-demographics
Update 2025-03-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Source: The market will be resolved using the 2024 EA Community survey.
Survey Value: The final percentage is set at 31%.
Condition: This will apply unless someone raises an objection.
1,000๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน2 | |
| 2 | แน1 | |
| 3 | แน1 | |
| 4 | แน0 | |
| 5 | แน0 |
People are also trading
Unless someone objects, I will resolve this to 31% from the 2024 EA Community survey. This is the survey I originally had in mind, but I wasn't sure that it was going to happen.
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/z4Wxd2dnTqDmFZrej/ea-survey-2024-demographics
@4fa I don't think so. I think they usually do them every 2 years, but it's not really structured I think.
@ErwinRossen Binary questions can be resolved to any percentage between 0 and 1. So if the correct percentage ends up being 10%, then the NO shares will pay out .9 and the YES shares pay out .1