Every answer immediately resolves YES if AI wins IMO gold, i.e. once there is a plausible demonstration that there exists an AI system which can get a gold medal on that year's International Mathematical Olympiad, and it is very likely that the year's IMO wasn't in the training data. Also resolves YES on a consensus that a certain AI system could have achieved an IMO gold (e.g., it solves a Millennium problem), but the year's IMO happens to be in the training dataset.
Else, every year on 1 Jan or shortly thereafter, starting with 1 Jan 2025, I will use a public source of randomness to independently roll for a possible NO resolution of each answer. (A source which allows one to specify in advance the locations where the random numbers will in the future be written, so that my shenanigans are ~impossible conditional on me not actually controlling that source of randomness.)
I will bet. In the event of a whatsoever contentious resolution I'll defer resolution to a trusted group of Manifold users, such as a poll of moderators.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Resolution criteria update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 100 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 1, the answer resolves to YES (1% chance).
If the roll is between 2 and 100 inclusive, the answer resolves to NO (99% chance). (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 2 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 1, the answer resolves to YES (50% chance).
If the roll is 2, the answer resolves to NO (50% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 4 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 1, the answer resolves to YES (25% chance).
If the roll is 2-4 inclusive, the answer resolves to NO (75% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 10 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 5, the answer resolves to NO (10% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (90% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 20 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 7, the answer resolves to NO (5% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (95% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 50 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 42, the answer resolves to NO (2% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (98% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 100 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 3, the answer resolves to NO (1% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (99% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 1000 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 7, the answer resolves to NO (0.1% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (99.9% chance).
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
Each year starting in 2025, a public source of randomness will be used to roll a number between 1 and 10000 inclusive for each answer.
If the roll is 19, the answer resolves to NO (0.01% chance).
Otherwise, the answer resolves to YES (99.99% chance).
1,000