Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
70
1kṀ40k2040
48%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will resolve to 50% if somehow it happens at exactly the same time. 100% if before, 0% if after. I will not bet on this market.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - IMO is scheduled before IOI each year. Therefore, if both events occur on the release date, the market will resolve to yes rather than a 50% outcome. (AI summary of creator comment)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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