Wait why huge NO buying? AI didn't win a gold on IOI yet, even if o3 could win gold on IOI 2024.

@jack

i am puzzled as well tbh

@Bayesian This https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1iniqry/openais_o3_achieves_gold_at_ioi_2024_reaching/ is not enough to trigger a YES resolution I think.

@nathanwei Presumably you mean not enough to trigger a no resolution, and if so why not?

@Bayesian I was thinking you need something like this https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-imo for both IMO and IOI? I should have really made the question more specific.

@nathanwei If ioi gold happened and IMO gold hasnt happened yet, there’s no way this market resolves yes, right?

@nathanwei this resolved https://manifold.markets/jack/will-an-ai-win-a-gold-medal-on-the-abb4e8b3c38a

@jack without more specific specifications otherwise (e.g. requiring live participation), I count this as achieving gold on IOI.

Thought the clarification implied only olympiads with not released solutions and discussions about them count.

@nathanwei If o3 gets IOI 2025 gold, what date would you count it as?

@DottedCalculator The date of IOI 2025

@nathanwei does the IOI 2024 gold being obtained months ago, before IMO 2025, count for this market?

@Bayesian I think NO - I think Patrik is right here: https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/will-ai-win-a-gold-on-imo-before-it#bpboxhuq2qc

IMO is before IOI this year by the way, so if both happen right as the contest is released, it will resolve to yes.