The last period of time time food/grain prices spiked this badly was in 2008, and the cause was in part because of bad weather tanking crop yields in Ukraine. This in turn was one of the major underlying causes of the Arab Spring, given that the Arab world is broadly bad for agriculture and must thus be a major net importer of food; the price of grain especially is a perennial hot-button political issue for people living there, and so any spike in the global price of grains and food oils is a potential risk to the political stability of the region.

Now that prices have started spiking again since early-mid 2022 with profit-driven artificial inflation, and the Black Sea grain deal is dead, a major world exporter of grain and food oils has been severely curtailed. Worse, Ukraine specifically had been a major exporter of grain to the Middle East, with Egypt (for example) importing ~85% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and with only a couple of months' worth of wheat stockpiles on hand in the country.

Thus we ask: will the aftershocks of the fall of the Black Sea grain deal result in at least one mass movement in at least two of the 20 UNAIDS-defined MENA (Middle East/North Africa) countries listed below whose aim is a decrease in the price of bread or food more generally, and which comes to also demand Arab Spring-esque civic goals including and exemplified by but not limited to: increased democracy/representation, curtailment of corruption, and improved human rights?

MENA countries: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates and Yemen

The market resolves YES if at least any two of the above countries have, by the end of 2025, each experienced at least once such mass movement as described. It resolves NO if no more than one has. It resolves N/A if a majority of those countries cease to exist as independent political entities for any reason, be it from a new Arab League, the foundation of a new Caliphate, a rogue AGI, an asteroid impact, a nuclear war, or even just a lot of minor invasions and annexations.

I will resolve this market on my frank best impression of mass political uprisings, which are famously easy to characterize and categorize neatly. If there's lots of traders and lots of inclarity about the status of any given political movement, I'll open discussion here.