Putin says Russia thinking of ditching grain deal due to West's 'cheating'

UN chief concerned Russia may not extend Ukraine grain deal

The U.N. chief expressed concern about Russia not renewing the Black Sea Grain Initiative on July 17.

Moscow has been threatening to walk away from the deal known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative – brokered by the United Nations and Türkiye in July last year – if obstacles to its own grain and fertilizer shipments are not removed.

• In May, Russia extended the deal for 60 days. It is due to be renewed in July 17th

• According to the UN Black Sea Grain Initiative Joint Coordination Centre, since the agreement was signed, over 27 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs have been exported through the Black Sea (as of April 2023).

• Generally, the wheat harvest in Ukraine begins in late June and extends through July and sometimes into early August. In general, maize harvest in Ukraine begins in late September or early October and continues through October and sometimes into November.

• Ukraine is one of the biggest grain exporters in the world

(source: usda via economicsobservatory)

This market will resolve as "YES" if Russia officially withdraws from the deal, or if grain is anyway blocked from leaving Ukraine by sea, or if I otherwise judge that the deal has fallen apart.

The market will resolve as "NO" if the deal is delayed, but still signed not long after the July 17th deadline.