Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
Itβs impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries canβt be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:
It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.
This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.
Update 2025-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Rallies in favor of policies or governance do not count as qualifying protests.
1,000People are also trading
This is how I see Madagascar:
September 25th: protests start2025 Malagasy protests - Wikipedia
12th October: coup
13th October: former President fled the country
17th October: interim President announced
20th October to 30th November: no further events listed in Wikipedia article. ChatGPT doesn't find any evidence of additional protests in the press
as of 30th November: the Cargenie entry already reflects the outcome of October 17th, so I assume they already counted the participants until October, but they list the protest in the range >1k <10k
Do you have any data that I miss? For the 90% chances of Cargenie updating to >10k
@BlueDragon can you edit the answers to specify the start date?
For example:
United States III - July or later
instead of
United States III
It is a bit messy to go through all the comments to figure out the start date for each option
@FecalAbhuman please read market description. The protest tracker is updated monthly. The schedule is not consistent. There is also an explanation for ongoing protests, to avoid the obvious tautological problems with resolving yes in an ongoing situation every month.
Netherlands Gaza protest in Amsterdam, 250.000 claimed.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen That's what he called it, but it's a protest against immigration and a government whose policies enable it.
Why is this resolving early? EDIT: Nevermind
July resolution:
Bangladesh
India
Taiwan II
No market (would have resolved):
Malaysia
Ukraine
Lebanon is ongoing right now, Lebanese military is deployed in response
