Resolved monthly throughout 2025 based on updates to the Carnegie Endowment Protest Tracker:
https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en
It’s impossible to predict exactly when the tracker will be updated, so this market may close early or be extended a few times mid month.
Resolves YES if there is a protest of >10,000 participants. NO if the country makes it to the end of 2025 with no protests that large.
Once resolved, countries can’t be re-added until the active protest is finished (too confusing otherwise). Countries only. Non-countries resolved as NA.
Update 2025-05-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Germany, which has been re-added to the market after previous protests:
It will resolve YES if another mass protest with >10,000 participants begins.
This qualifying protest must start in May 2025 or thereafter.
1,000People are also trading
Based on March update:
Resolved YES:
Brazil
France
Hungary
Yemen
No unresolved market (otherwise would have resolved YES):
Nepal
Germany
Philippines
Slovakia
Israel
Surprising that the source doesn't seem to mention the UK summer 2024 far right riots over the southport knife attack, easily the most high profile and destructive protest in the country the past decade
@TheAllMemeingEye I chose them because they have a methodology, but there are gaps I can’t explain. Next time it happens that there’s a protest we expect but don’t see, I’ll write to them and ask.
@TheAllMemeingEye looks like I conflated the German protests, but both met the criteria. Thanks for catching that!
Double-checked that the resolution is otherwise correct.
Serbia resolves YES , but of course only when it is mentioned on the tracker
Protest market for 2025 up! First resolution will be mid February. End of year special! Just 25M to add countries.