Why is this resolving early? EDIT: Nevermind

July resolution:

Bangladesh

India

Taiwan II

No market (would have resolved):

Malaysia

Ukraine

Israel is ongoing right now, two separate protest; left wing anti annexation protests and Haredi anti conscription protests

Lebanon is ongoing right now, Lebanese military is deployed in response

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ARG yes? WTF is this?

June 2025 resolution:

Argentina

Colombia

Romania

Spain

Thailand

Yemen - no current market

Iran

United States

I missed a couple from May 2025, due to not understanding how to use the filters on the updated tracker:

France

Türkiye

@BlueDragon Ge?

@Chumchulum lol oops thx

I made a good faith effort using multiple search words on their internal search function and couldn't find the methodology they use.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen check the ABOUT tab (on the side). There is a YouTube video and some salient definitions and explanations.

The most significant clarification I can offer is that rallies IN FAVOR of policies or governance do not count.

largest protest in country since 2023

@BlackCrusade check resolution criteria, it counts if it attracts over 10,000 participants

There are a bunch of II labeled countries that didn't have a first entry. Presumably because there is an ongoing one without there being an entry before the disturbance starting. Maybe have a month attached to the label for clarity (post June) for those that were put up now.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen all the II labeled entries have an original. It will pop up when you search. I’ll gladly take your input and add the month. Can’t right now as I’m camping.

May Update: no resolutions

• Hungary, already resolved (new protest last month: “Protest against foreign funding bill”)

• Japan: no market (new protest last month: “Protest against constitutional amendment”)

@BlueDragon There is one now in Kenya, though of course whether it ends up on the list, is another matter. Unsure how to add the possibility that there may be another later again.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen please feel free to add it! If it shows up on the list I will resolve it. If not it remains an option going forward.

@BlueDragon the issue is that it is in the news right now, so it would only be a prediction on whether it is reported on

@JussiVilleHeiskanen well, whether it ends up on the Carnagie Foundation list, yes. You can read more about their methodology on their website.

I think I will do that. Be back soon.

@BlueDragon I found this: https://carnegieendowment.org/programs/democracy-conflict-and-governance?lang=en

Democracy, Conflict, and Governance

The Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program is a leading source of independent policy research, writing, and outreach on global democracy, conflict, and governance. It analyzes and seeks to improve international efforts to reduce democratic backsliding, mitigate conflict and violence, overcome political polarization, promote gender equality, and advance pro-democratic uses of new technologies.

@BlueDragon Ahah, this may be the most germane link...

https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2020/04/misunderstanding-global-protests?lang=en

@BlueDragon Hmm. even that link above is more analysis of their results, rather than their methodology. The only thing I found about methodology was about their study of climate protests, which told which types protests did not qualify. But I have yet to find a subpage specifically about their methodology. I'll keep searching though. Thank you for piqueing my curiosity.

Note this was added May, so only mass protests starting in May or later will count.