Will Donald Trump be jailed for violating a gag order in 2023?
แน€830
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

I will not bet in this market.


Some clarification points from the comment section:

If he is ordered to go to jail but for whatever reason does not actually go to jail (dies on the way, flees custody, etc.), this will not resolve Yes unless he is actually jailed.

There is still considerable room for interpretation of what exactly it means to be 'jailed', whether 'jailed' requires being held in a specific place or how expansive that term can be, etc.

The over-arching principle here is I would resolve yes if people say "he went to jail". If the judge says "You're not allowed to leave the state of Florida" or "You're not allowed to leave your house unless you're coming to the court", that is not "jailed". Being taken in the back of a police car is probably not being "jailed".

If the judge says "You're to be held by the X person in the Y room of this court until 5pm when I will have my decision", that very well could be "jailed" because it is being held in a place as if it was a jail. If he's sent from a court to a place known as a jail, and not allowed to leave immediately, he was probably "jailed" even if he isn't literally behind bars.

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Closes and resolves based on the time zone Donald Trump is in at the end of 2023. I have no idea, but my guess is US Eastern.

predicted NO

@Eliza they dont need jail him anymore, they just take him off the ballet box instead

bought แน€45 of YES

I think it would be helpful to have something like

"Resolves yes if: physically in jail/ordered to jail before ____date and time____".and the date you intend to close/resolve the market. Maybe a set of sources you will rely on, just for the principle of the thing.

@JustNo Thank you for helping to develop the criteria of this market, I have been waiting for someone to ask for clarifications.


The closing date is not going to change but I will resolve based on the last time Donald Trump is in the year 2023. So if he's being hauled to the jail at midnight on New Year's Eve, we'll pay attention to whatever time zone he happens to be in.

If he is ordered to go to jail but for whatever reason does not actually go to jail (dies on the way, flees custody, etc.), this will not resolve Yes unless he is actually jailed.

There is still considerable room for interpretation of what exactly it means to be 'jailed', whether 'jailed' requires being held in a specific place or how expansive that term can be, etc.

The over-arching principle here is I would resolve yes if people say "he went to jail". If the judge says "You're not allowed to leave the state of Florida" or "You're not allowed to leave your house unless you're coming to the court", that is not "jailed". Being taken in the back of a police car is probably not being "jailed".

If the judge says "You're to be held by the X person in the Y room of this court until 5pm when I will have my decision", that very well could be "jailed" because it is being held in a place as if it was a jail. If he's sent from a court to a place known as a jail, and not allowed to leave immediately, he was probably "jailed" even if he isn't literally behind bars.

I'm not participating in this market and I will call it how I see it. Keep asking questions if you have them or share why if you disagree.

predicted YES

I see there has been a news item about Trump and a gag order. Nothing about jail, though.

Do any of you have questions about how this might resolve? What it means to 'be jailed', etc.?

@Eliza I especially would not want to confuse anyone who has already purchased Yes shares -- so if you have any concerns or questions please write in.