Conditional on Twitter being forced to perform a cold boot before 2024, will they succeed by 2024Q2?
Conditional on Twitter being forced to perform a cold boot before 2024, will they succeed by 2024Q2?
resolved by
13
230Ṁ726resolved Feb 2
Resolved
N/A1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Twitter goes down such that one would need to cold boot the whole thing to get it up. [1]
Then resolve to YES if Twitter is up at the end of Q1, and NO if it is not.
Else, resolve N/A
[1] Note that this includes if Twitter the company ceases to exist.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will Twitter (X) shut down before 2027
14% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2028?
62% chance
Will Twitter/X be shutdown permanently by the end of 2027
12% chance
Will Twitter collapse by the end of 2030?
10% chance
Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)
4% chance
Will the Twitter Turing Test be passed by 2030?
87% chance
Will Twitter (X) Go Bankrupt Before 2030?
25% chance
Will Twitter claim to be profitable before 2027?
63% chance
Will Twitter (X) go bankrupt before 2027?
20% chance