Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?
Will Twitter suffer an unrecoverable system failure by the end of 2025?
34
1kṀ3804
Dec 31
5%
chance

Resolves YES if Twitter goes down and does not come back online, and/or catastrophic data loss (e.g. all the tweets and accounts are gone) occurs and recovery from backup fails.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Internet
X (Twitter)
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading


Sort by:
predictedYES 2y

How does the market resolve if Twitter ceases to exist by then? To NO, I assume?

predictedNO 2y

@Lorxus There's no realistic chance of that happening, unless Elon Musk dies.

predictedYES 2y

@RobinGreen And you believe that, do you. 😂

predictedNO 2y

@Lorxus Yes

predictedYES 2y

@RobinGreen That seems... barely related? Given that Musky Husky is no longer CEO??

I think they'll declare bankruptcy, but that market will resolve NO.

predictedNO 2y

@Lorxus Good point. Nevertheless, there are other relevant markets. I'm pretty confident in that belief.

2y

@Lorxus I had envisioned that being a YES, if Twitter becomes unreachable as a result of bankruptcy. Otherwise if they can keep it ticking over regardless, it's NO.

2y

Define terms?

predictedYES 2y

@JonathanRay Thanks for the catch, just added resolution criteria

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy