Will Elon Musk shut down Twitter by end of 2027? (conditioned on deal closing)
14%
chance
Jan 1, 2028
M$179 bet
Resolves as YES if Twitter is no longer in business for any reason. Resolves as YES if Twitter has been renamed and legacy users and tweets have been purged. Resolves as NO if Twitter has been renamed but retains users and/or tweets. Resolves as NO if Twitter is still in business. Resolves as N/A if Musk's purchase of Twitter does not close.
Gigacasting
Gigacasting bought M$10 of NO
Dude who created three of the most important companies of the decades and has the most popular tweet of all time will just buy and shut down a platform that gives him reach to tens of millions, lightning 40b on fire? Lol
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MartinRandall
Martin Randall bought M$10 of NO
He's not going to be the sole shareholder I think?
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TANSTAAFL
Thought process that lead to this question: 1. Twitter is arguably a net negative influence on modern civilization. 2. Musk's decision to purchase Twitter appears to be based on the belief that this can be corrected. 3. Musk seems willing to spend his energy and money on projects that he believes benefit society. 4.. Musk may reach the conclusion that the issues are not correctable and he would rather write off the loss. I'm not convinced this will happen but the probability is not zero either.
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