This market predicts whether Elon Musk or any member of Twitter's C-level management will publicly claim that Twitter has become profitable before December 31, 2026. Claims can be made through any official channel, including but not limited to press releases, interviews, social media posts, or public statements. The profitability claim must be clear and unambiguous, specifying that Twitter is operating at a profit. Announcements solely based on future projections or speculative statements will not count. This market resolves to 'Yes' if such a claim is made before the specified date, and 'No' otherwise
Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Positive EBITDA alone is not enough to satisfy the claim requirement. This update clarifies that:
The claim must explicitly state that Twitter is operating at a profit
Merely citing financial metrics (e.g., positive EBITDA) without a clear statement of operating profit will not count
Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Profitability Claim:
The claim must explicitly state that Twitter is operating at a profit.
Ambiguous phrases like “barely breaking even” do not meet the requirement.
The statement should confirm that Twitter’s revenue exceeds all costs, resulting in a positive net profit.
1,000@FedorShabashev "barely breaking even" sounds like a profitability claim to me even if only at a low rate. (Agree an +'ve EBITDA claim should not count.) Would that count if in an official channel? If so, what about questions in post below?
@ChristopherRandles "‘Barely breaking even’ is ambiguous and does not clearly indicate profitability. To count, the statement must explicitly confirm that Twitter is operating at a profit, meaning revenue exceeds all costs and results in a positive net profit."
Hmm.
It mentions an email sent to employees this month, also confirmed by The Verge, where the Chief Twit said, “...we’ve witnessed the power of X in shaping national conversations and outcomes,” but also claimed, “Our user growth is stagnant, revenue is unimpressive, and we’re barely breaking even.”
https://www.theverge.com/2025/1/24/24351317/elon-musk-x-twitter-bank-debt-stagnant-growth
Is this plausible if it sounds like there was a loss in 2024? Maybe plausibility doesn't matter much to this question? However, It could be that Musk is saying X was marginally profitable in last quarter of 2024 which can obviously be different than whole of 2024. So I doubt we can rule out on plausibility grounds. I don't see any requirement in the question for a minimum period of making a profit. Is that the case or might some minimum period of profit be considered to be required?
>"Claims can be made through any official channel, including but not limited to press releases, interviews, social media posts, or public statements."
Is a leaked email to staff verified by some media outlet an "official channel" ?
Note that EBITDA can be positive but the company not be profitable. The interest on the loans is likely substantial.
Still sounds like progress being made.
https://x.com/Austen/status/1887363437518270757
Remember how Elon bought Twitter and totally destroyed the company through his own hubris? (At least that’s what I read).
Turns out it’s not only profitable, but profit has doubled since he took it private.
The loans are selling at 97 cents on the dollar. They did it.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-sell-down-55-bln-musks-x-debt-investors-source-2025-02-05/
"The acquisition was funded by a $6.5 billion secured term loan, a $500 million revolving credit facility, $3 billion unsecured loan and $3 billion of secured loans."
The banks marketed the deal last week with an intention to sell down the debt at 90-95 cents to the dollar but managed to price it at a higher price of 97 cents, said the first source.
Investors will get paid a yield of 11%, he added."
So $13billion debt taken on in the deal. The 11% yield will be slightly boosted by buying at 97cents but that is spread over a few years so say 10% interest on $13 billion loans is $1.3billion interest per year. However twitter probably had some debt before the takeover burdened the company with this additional $13billion of debt.
I think from this, it is clear enough that the interest is larger than the claimed EBITDA of $1.25bn