When will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?

Question

This question focuses specifically on "The Winds of Winter". The condition would be fulfilled if the title matches or has resemblance to "The Winds of Winter", such as "A Few Winds of Winter", "The Winds of Snow" or "The Tornados of Winter". Simply having a sixth book isn't sufficient to resolve this market yes. If a notably different title is utilized, I'd rely on George R.R. Martin's or his publisher (in case of death) statements and media reports to determine if the content planned for the sixth book aligns with or resembles what was envisioned for "The Winds of Winter". For instance, if Martin decided to write another book in between and published it as the sixth book of "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, this question would remain unresolved.

It must be published in an unlimited edition or a limited edition with at least 100 000 books.

If the book was released in multiple parts that were published in different years, the question would accordingly be resolved to more than one year due to the split.

If the book wasn't published until 2030, I'd add options and extend the question closing date. If the book wasn't published before 2035 or was published in 2023, this market would resolve as Other.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Other, followed by 2028 and 2030 are most likely. See the market for live updates (81 traders, as of Aug 4, 2026).