As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post My PhD thesis: Algorithmic Bayesian Epistemology is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ528 | |
| 2 | Ṁ34 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
People are also trading
@mods there is still a bunch of outstanding NO markets (I think all yes markets have been resolved except the one i marked below) for 2024 annual review. It's been a month and less wrong account hasn't resolved them so pls do (my loans are killing me).
Based on this: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uk48L6j28iiAyvPKJ/voting-results-for-the-2024-review
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-phd-thesis-algorithmic-baye
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-case-for-cot-unfaithfulnes
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-clients-the-liars-make-the
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-best-tacit-knowledge-video
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-selfother-overlap-a-neglected
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-msltzai2et
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-loving-a-world-you-dont-trust
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-parasites-not-a-metaphor-make
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-poker-is-a-bad-game-for-teachi
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-great-data-integration-sch
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-agi-safety-and-alignment-at-go
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-scissors-statements-for-presid
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-strong-feature-hypothesis
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-story-of-i-have-been-a-goo
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-subskills-of-listening-to-wisd
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-explore-more-a-bag-of-tricks-t
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-stanislav-petrov-quarterly-per
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-asis-will-not-leave-just-a-lit
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-miri-2024-communications-strat
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-you-are-not-too-irrational-to
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-response-to-aschenbrenners-sit
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-dragon-agnosticism-make-the-to
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-information-vs-assurance-make
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-openai-email-archives-from-mus
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-a-dozen-ways-to-get-more-dakka
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-ai-companies-arent-really-usin
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-how-i-learned-to-stop-trusting
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-what-tms-is-like-make-the-top
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-ai-catastrophes-and-rogue-depl
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-think-it-faster-exercise-m
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-an-extremely-opinionated-annot
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-incredible-fentanyldetecti
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-nearmode-thinking-on-ai-make-t
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-hopium-wars-the-agi-entent
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-sae-feature-geometry-is-outsid
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-noone-in-my-org-puts-money-in
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-ai-model-delta-compared-to-vdgg4nh6bk
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-toward-a-mathematical-framewor
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-nursing-doubts-make-the-top-fi
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-nondisparagement-canaries-for
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-overcoming-bias-anthology-make
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-updatelessness-doesnt-solve-mo
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-why-dont-we-just-shoggothfacep
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-some-problematic-aesthetics-of
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-eis-xiii-reflections-on-anthro
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-in-favour-of-exploring-nagging
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-sleeper-agents-training-decept-d0560c5656b4
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-skills-id-like-my-collaborator
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-skills-id-like-my-collaborator
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-hour-of-memoryless-lucidity
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-failures-in-kindness-make-the
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-deep-honesty-make-the-top-fift
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-orienting-to-3-year-agi-timeli
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-why-would-beliefstates-have-a
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-behavioral-redteaming-is-unlik
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-being-nicer-than-clippy-make-t
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-i-would-have-shit-in-that-alle
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-pearly-gates-make-the-top
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-you-dont-know-how-bad-most-thi
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-skills-from-a-year-of-purposef
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-struggling-like-a-shadowmoth-m
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-when-is-insurance-worth-it-mak
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-refusal-in-llms-is-mediated-by
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-priors-and-prejudice-make-the
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-anvil-shortage-make-the-top-fi
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-towards-more-cooperative-ai-sa
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-biological-risk-from-the-mirro
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-notes-from-a-prompt-factory-ma
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-what-o3-becomes-by-2028-make-t
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-openais-cbrn-tests-seem-unclea
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-every-every-bay-area-house-par
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-experience-using-financial
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-my-simple-agi-investment-insur
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-dyslucksia-make-the-top-fifty
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-raising-children-on-the-eve-of
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-masterpiece-make-the-top-fifty
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-by-default-capital-will-matter
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-what-convincing-warning-shot-c
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-attitudes-about-applied-ration
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-whats-up-with-llms-representin
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-pareto-best-and-the-curse-618ef422f895
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-notifications-received-in-30-m
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-many-arguments-for-ai-xrisk-ar
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-the-dangers-of-mirrored-life-m
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-o1-a-technical-primer-make-the
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-whats-up-with-llms-representin-e94fe1bb135a
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-which-skincare-products-are-ev
Still needs to resolve YES
https://manifold.markets/LessWrong/will-there-is-way-too-much-serendip-2f4c365372a2