Will "Refusal in LLMs is mediated by a single direction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Basic
3
Ṁ2072026
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Refusal in LLMs is mediated by a single direction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will "Alignment Implications of LLM Successes: a De..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
57% chance
Will "Against LLM Reductionism" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
21% chance
Will "Assume Bad Faith" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
29% chance
Will "Assume Bad Faith" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
29% chance
Will "Failures in Kindness" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
44% chance
Will "Attitudes about Applied Rationality" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
43% chance
Will "What Goes Without Saying" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
14% chance
Will "How to Bounded Distrust" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
20% chance
Will "Toward a Broader Definition of Adverse Selection" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
41% chance
Will "How LLMs are and are not myopic" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
14% chance