Will "Refusal in LLMs is mediated by a single direction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

5

Ṁ120Ṁ352

resolved Feb 27

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts. Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2024 Review resolves in February 2026.

This market will resolve to 100% if the post Refusal in LLMs is mediated by a single direction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2024 Review, and 0% otherwise. The market was initialized to 14%.

Market context

LessWrong Annual Review

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ31
2		Ṁ23
3		Ṁ11

People are also trading

Will "On the functional self of LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "How I stopped being sure LLMs are just making..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Surprising LLM reasoning failures make me thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Recent LLMs can do 2-hop and 3-hop latent (no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Have LLMs Generated Novel Insights?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "How Much Are LLMs Actually Boosting Real-Worl..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Related questions

Will "On the functional self of LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "How I stopped being sure LLMs are just making..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Surprising LLM reasoning failures make me thi..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Recent LLMs can do 2-hop and 3-hop latent (no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Have LLMs Generated Novel Insights?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "The nature of LLM algorithmic progress (v2)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Will "How Much Are LLMs Actually Boosting Real-Worl..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "Misrepresentation as a Barrier for Interp (Pa..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy