Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?

Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064) This question resolves yes if a territory containing 10 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025. Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea It's also worth nothing that the population of Russia is currently ~146 mllion (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/), and no single Russian republic contains >5m people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia See also the same question, but for territories with >1m people instead: https://manifold.markets/LawrenceChan/will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/

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