Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
8
6
Ṁ97Ṁ271
2025
7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064)
This question resolves yes if a territory containing 10 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025.
Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea
It's also worth nothing that the population of Russia is currently ~146 mllion (https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/), and no single Russian republic contains >5m people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia
See also the same question, but for territories with >1m people instead: https://manifold.markets/LawrenceChan/will-a-territory-with-over-1-millio
As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
22% chance
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
16% chance
Will any of the 21 republics of Russia secede from the Russian Federation before 2030
29% chance
Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
13% chance
Will the population of Russia in 2034 be above 150 million?
6% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
26% chance
Will more than 1000 people die in an internal conflict in Russia by 2025?
11% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?
44% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
35% chance
Will Bashkortostan secede from the Russian Federation before the end of 2028?
11% chance