Will a territory with over 1 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
Plus
24
Ṁ2805Jan 1
3%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some have suggested that the current sanctions and general effects of the Russo-Ukraine war may lead to the break apart of the Russian Federation. (For example: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1507820717127000064)
This question resolves yes if a territory containing 1 million or more people, currently recognized by the United States as being part of the Russian Federation, ceases to be recognized by the United States as part of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it resolves no on January 1st, 2025.
Note that the United States does not currently recognize Crimea as part of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Crimea#Pro-Ukrainian_stances_on_Crimea
Also consult this list of Republics of Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia
Note that the Republic of Chechnya currently has >1m people.
As suggested by Zvi in: https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2022/03/28/ukraine-post-7-prediction-market-update/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will a territory with over 10 million people cease to be part of Russia by 2025?
2% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2030?
48% chance
Will any part of pre-2014 Russia territory become an internationally recognized independent state by the end of 2040?
49% chance
Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030
26% chance
By 2050, will any territory that was administered by Russia in 2013 be administered by China instead?
36% chance
Will Ukraine cede any of its territory to Russia by 2025? [150M subsidy]
7% chance
Will Russia formally cede any territory before 2025?
8% chance
Will Russia lose control of at least as much territory inside Russia as it did to Wagner by the end of 2030?
40% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
34% chance
Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?
17% chance