Will GPT-4 improve on the Chinchilla scaling law?
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1.7kṀ8738resolved Jan 2
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Currently, the best known scaling law for language models comes from https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.15556 .
This market will resolve YES if OpenAI improve on this scaling law when training GPT-4, ie get better performance (in terms of crossentropy) per training FLOP. It will resolve NO if they get the same performance or worse.
If GPT-4 is multimodal and gets better performance per FLOP on pure language modeling this market resolve YES.
Close date updated to 2023-12-31 5:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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