What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?
3
310Ṁ65
2027
157
expected

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4.

I will take the top 5 benchmarks/metrics that smart people I know tell me are the most credible/important, and that are available for both GPT's. Then I will calculate the percent increase/decrease from GPT4 to GPT5 for all five benchmarks, and average them.

This market resolves to whatever number that is.

Example of how I will calculate it:

  • Five benchmarks that each score between 0-100 points

    • (The actual real world benchmark scoring will surely vary, but I'll normalize them to a consistent scale first if OpenAI has not already done that for me in the GPT5 paper)

  • GPT4 scores an average score of 50

  • GPT5 scores an average score of 75

  • GPT5/GPT4 = 1.5

  • 1.5 x 100 = 150, which is what this market would resolve to

  • This market is capped at 300

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