Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4? | Manifold

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

71

1kṀ4687

2027

70%

chance

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When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.

Otherwise, this market resolves NO.

This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.

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Related questions

Will the ratio of inference runs to training runs on GPT5 decrease from the ratio on GPT4?

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Will GPT-5 have fewer parameters than GPT-4? (1500M subsidy)

Will GPT-5 be released incrementally as GPT4.x for different checkpoints from the training run?

Will I be impressed by GPT-5?

Will GPT-5 be GPT-5o?

What is the main reason behind GPT-4o speed improvement relative to GPT-4 base model?

Size of smallest open-source LLM marching GPT 3.5's performance in 2025? (GB)

GPT-4 performance and compute efficiency from a simple architecture before 2026

Will there be a GPT 5.5?

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