What will be the "final score" of the "Pro" side in the Max Tegmark/Yann LeCun AI x-risk debate?
What will be the "final score" of the "Pro" side in the Max Tegmark/Yann LeCun AI x-risk debate?
Basic
8
Ṁ89
resolved Jun 27
Resolved
-4

On June 22nd, Munk Debates will be hosting a debate between Max Tegmark and Yann LeCun on the following subject:

Be it resolved, AI research and development poses an existential threat.

Max is taking the "Pro" side and Yann is taking the "Con" side.

Munk Debates does a poll of the audience before and after each debate. The debaters are then judged based on how many people in the audience (on net) changed their minds from "Pro" to "Con" or vice-versa. You can see some examples from their previous debates on their debates page.

This market resolves to the numerical value representing the change in audience opinion, as a percentage vote gain, for the "Pro" side. In other words: final "Pro" vote percentage minus initial "Pro" vote percentage. A shift in favour of the "Con" side will be represented as a negative number.

For example:

  • If the initial poll shows 50% Pro/50% Con, and the final poll shows 70% Pro/30% Con, then this market resolves to "20".

  • If the initial poll shows 80% Pro/20% Con, and the final poll shows 40% Pro/60% Con, this market resolves to "-40".

This market will close at the currently-scheduled end of the debate (8:45 PM Eastern time), in case folks want to evaluate the arguments live and predict how they might sway the audience. This may mean that the results could be announced before this market fully closes, but I think that's an okay tradeoff.

This market will resolve sometime after the final results are announced, possibly with a delay to allow me the time to look up the results and resolve it. (I may not be able to watch it live.)

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1y

Results are in, and "Con" won by a 4% margin. AI x-risk advocates have their work cut out for them.

1y

I wasn't able to watch the debate live, and so far it looks like Munk Debates hasn't announced the final results yet. I'm not sure when that'll happen.

If the results don't come in soon, would people prefer I extend the close date to, say, a week from now so that anyone catching up on the debate recordings can bet? This comes at the cost of likely allowing bets even after the results are announced, as it's likely that the bettors will be watching for the results closer than I am.

1y

If you want a simpler yes/no market to bet on, use this market, though note that this one's betting whether the "Con" side will win:

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