Is establishing a truth economy that produces more than 50% of the global GDP before AI fooms critical to survival?
67
1kṀ33k
2040
40%
chance

A "truth economy" is a free and open network state predictive market economy where humanity verified users can wager on factual statements intentionally to produce the market data that is needed to create a decentralized (controlled by competing predictive markets) source of truth for aligning "non-owned" AI (AI that behaves how the market determines it ought) that serves in the general public's interest.

We will use this process to secure the only job we don't want AI to do for us (deciding what the future should look like) by finding out what the AI has wrong about the Universe and arguing with it until one of you learns something.) If you learn, you earn a little. If it learns, you earn much more. We argue with it about how the process should explicitly function, but it requires everyone to produce their own private constitutions (lists of propositions and corresponding confidences and values) that are used to align the general constitution that serves as a target for aligning AI. Private constitutions earn rewards based on how well they identify the variance between the current state of the general constitution and the ideal state of the general constitution.

It's a living document, embedded in the market.

It will serve as a function that allows individuals to earn a living without the need for capital simply by proving they are educated on the points of fact that are valuable to society.

Will we do that before AI kills us all? Please.

Here's an example: https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

You should use this to align yourself to the rest of humanity.

It will be resolved in the affirmative when all of the economists agree that the only job left is to produce data that is intentionally used to align an AI nobody really owns. All the mathematicians can prove that the system is safe because the "AI" isn't a real AI (neural nets) that learns how to live well "for us", it is a GOFAI that simply enables us to communicate with each other. All the historians agree that this was the principle that ensured AI is a decentralized public service and individuals are prohibited globally from owning the rights to control of the fundamental constitution that governs their behavior.

It will resolve in the negative if someone else also comes up with an interpretable solution to alignment.

  • Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - The requirement for '50% of global GDP' refers to the combined economic output of all prediction markets/futarchy systems collectively, not just a single prediction market (AI summary of creator comment)

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy