Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
Self-sustaining automated global economy by 2050?
12
1kṀ1882050
27%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
This resolves YES if, at the start of 2050, all humans were to suddenly vanish from the universe, automated factories would continue to produce and distribute items to other factories either forever or until interrupted by a major change in the natural environment (e.g. heat death of the universe, or the sun going red giant, or lumber trees going extinct).
This market will resolve based on my personal judgement and is quite a ways in the future, so consider that there may be high resolution risk.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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