According to The Economist (July 25, 2025 issue, "The economics of superintelligence"), AI may increase annual GDP growth rates to the 20-30% range. This has never been achieved in history among developed nations. The question is whether this will happen by 2030 (so the annual GDP growth has to be > 20% for at least one year, including year 2030), thereby signaling the arrival of superintelligence. "Developed country" is defined by having a Human Development Index over 0.80, and must have a population of over 2 million.

AI-generated note to future resolvers (and self!):

This market asks whether a developed country's GDP will grow by more than 20% due to AI by the year 2030. Because this refers to GDP outcomes by end of 2030, this market should not be resolved before full-year 2030 GDP data is available, ideally in early 2031.

Please:

• Leave the market open for trading until Dec 31, 2025 at 3:59 PM (per close date above).

• Do not resolve until GDP data and reasonable attribution analysis (e.g. OECD, IMF, World Bank, or economic consensus) becomes available.

• If attribution to AI is unclear or disputed, consider leaving the market unresolved and flagging to moderators. But it is implausible that anything other than AI could increase GDP this much.