Weaker version of https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/will-transgender-us-passports-with

For an N=1 case study, see https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-kimmys-transgender-mtf-passpor

Will a trans-allied news source like Erin Reed, them.us, NCTE, etc. report that many people (N>=5) whose gender marker differs from the one assigned at birth are unable to renew their passport? By any means, including legislative or administrative.

Also resolves YES if:

• The sister market resolves YES (passports are revoked) or

• A mainstream news source or trans-critical news source reports this occurring (I somewhat don’t expect them to.), or

• Such passports may be renewed only if the recipient agrees to “correct” their gender marker to match the one assigned at birth

Resolves NO if:

• Number of individuals affected is < 5

• Such a source reports that everyone is also having trouble renewing passports (stricter ID requirements, dismantling of USPS, destaffing, etc) — gender mismatch must be stated as a contributing factor to count as YES

• >=5 anecdotal posts describing this happening to individuals on Bluesky, Twitter, etc can be found, but are not being reported as systemic/widespread, even by trans-allied journalists

I believe this is somewhat likely (>20% probability), but I won’t participate.

• Update 2025-24-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Secretary of State Marco Rubio directed the State Department to freeze passport renewals and applications for individuals with an “X” sex marker.

  • All current and future applications requesting an “X” sex marker are being suspended pending additional guidance from the Department.

  • Resolve YES in 14 days unless there are substantial legal challenges or other developments pending additional guidance from the Department.