Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025?

144

1kṀ57k

Jan 2

21%

chance

ALL

Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? By any means, including legislative or administrative.

Update 2024-11-12 (PST): A policy to revoke passports would count as a YES resolution even if it cannot be enforced due to technical/data limitations. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Scale requirement: Revocations must occur at a significant scale, such as state-wide policies or equivalent measures.
- Means of revocation: Actions may include legislative, administrative, or other substantial directives that impact a large number of passport holders.

Update 2025-23-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Additions:
- Number of Reports: Approximately ten confirmed separate instances.
- Geographical Concentration: All instances must be concentrated within a single administrative region (e.g., state or city).
- Evidence Sources: Acceptable sources include Substack, reputable press outlets, or detailed YouTube reports by professional reporters. Social media alone is insufficient.

Update 2025-23-01 (PST): - Number of Reports: Approximately 50 confirmed separate instances. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-25-01 (PST): - Revocations during processing are excluded from the resolution criteria. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2025-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Passports that are revoked following the reversal of a court injunction (such as the Orr vs. Trump injunction) will count towards a YES resolution.
- This is provided that the other criteria, such as the number of demonstrated cases, are also met.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

I know what you mean but it’s a bizarre title. What’s a transgender passport?

@MachiNi Passport belonging to a transgender person, reflecting a gender other than the one assigned at birth.

@JessicaEvans but it’s not a specific kind of passport. It’s a US passport just like all US passports. Your title makes it sound like there’s this thing called a transgender passport’

@MachiNi I just have an open contempt for all language, sorry. You should be able to think without being bound to words.

@JessicaEvans you dont care how people talk? What words they use? I

@MachiNi It's not sacramental to me. It's important to understand the different deep structures of speech. But not because structure confers legitimacy. And being deliberately callous about structure filters out the people who don't understand this. Which is important because having conversations with them is bound to lead to later unpleasantness. This is not the same thing as reality itself being unstructured, because ThE MaP Is NoT ThE TeRrItOrY. Reality is structured enough for me. I don't need to make my speech maximally structured as some sort of sympathetic act of magic to ensure the sky doesn't fall down.

Doubtful of this happening in 2025. Very much could see this happening in 2026

@Rucker yeah, I'm kind of kicking myself for restricting it to a single year.

@JessicaEvans this is your sign to make another market (hypnotism gif here)

@Rucker https://manifold.markets/JessicaEvans/transgender-us-passports-with-nonbi?r=SmVzc2ljYUV2YW5z

bought Ṁ50 YES

https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/trump-admin-quietly-changes-state
Welp, looks like they might be going for it after all.

@nonnihil Erin now reports the admin is reversing course, thanks Erin! https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/state-department-reverses-course

@KJW_01294 Erin now reports the admin is reversing their reversed course, boo Erin! https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3m5wp5cjcuk2y

Erin reports that the state department is considering revoking passports that were recently changed as a result of the Orr vs Trump injunction, if a higher court reverses the decision

https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3ltkvjbky7k22

If this comes to pass, will it resolve YES?

@KJW_01294 I'm leaning yes, simply because it is still revocation rather than refusal to process. It would still need to have sufficient cases of it happening demonstrated, per earlier discussion.

@KJW_01294 SCOTUS grants a stay in Orr v Trump, https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25pdf/25a319_i4dj.pdf

@KJW_01294 Just need evidence of enforcement now.

If there are enough passports revoked that meet this market's more specific criteria, would this count?

———

US revoking visas for South Sudanese passport holders

https://ground.news/article/us-revokes-all-south-sudan-visas-over-failure-to-accept-repatriation-of-citizens?utm_source=mobile-app&utm_medium=newsroom-share

bought Ṁ5 YES

Wait, never mind, bad question. It's a revocation of visas, not passports, in the article.

I don't think this triggers a YES resolution based on the clarifying comments I'm seeing, but I still think this is pretty relevant to the conversation. 3:13 long video.

https://youtu.be/xmJ7dHp8EwA?si=05l0J-SovvcBNyrZ

If you don't want to watch the video:

Male-to-female transgender actress Hunter Schafer was able to renew her U.S. passport. She reportedly selected “F” on the renewal paperwork, but the new passport (issued 20 Feb 2025) had an “M” in the Sex field.

filled a Ṁ500 NO at 1.0% order

https://bsky.app/profile/erininthemorning.com/post/3lhtr7jczdk2o

Erin Reed (@erininthemorning.com)

Ken Klipperstein leaked full passport guidance for trans people: - X markers will be a focal point - Existing unexpired passports will remain good - No guidance on confiscation, but it doesn’t seem like they will - Renewals less clear but it looks like they will use “a preponderance of evidence”

Anecdotal reports of confiscation of supporting documents: https://www.reddit.com/r/transgender/comments/1i7wakb/state_department_may_have_halted_processing_for/

It appears that the US State Department is no longer processing gender marker correction applications and have been instructed to confiscate the supporting documentation submitted as a part of the application

If someone surrenders their current passport as part of a gender change process and can’t get it back, does that affect this market? I assume we’re mostly concerned about proactive revocation?

Anecdotal report (N=1) of passports of trans people being confiscated:

Source of this screenshot is unclear, I’m trying to verify. This apparently happened in Florida. The post was apparently taken down.

(Edit: this could be the same case Jessica posted downthread)

@KJW_01294 Revocation during processing is a grey area that I hadn't had in mind, so because I wasn't thinking of it I'm going to take that to mean it wasn't what I meant.