Will transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth be revoked in 2025? By any means, including legislative or administrative.
You mean revoking passports entirely?? At first I assumed this was about forms of ID change, that seems more plausible. Nobody's gunning for it, and it would be really hard to implement. I can see some kind of wishy-washy 'fraud prevention' maybe, but outright revoking? To be revoked would mean that there's some kind of national transgender registry, they'd have to go through birth certificate records and cross check changes going back years and years. There are probably way more corrected clerical errors and name changes as there are trans people. AFAIK nobody's keeping records of gender change specifically. (the texas attorney general tried this with drivers licenses, it didn't work) https://www.texastribune.org/2022/12/14/ken-paxton-transgender-texas-data/
If someone has evidence to the contrary, I'd really like to know 😅
Gotcha! Thanks for making this market it is important to have an accurate prediction! Ok I see what you're getting at now, that it could play out like driver's licenses? Some red states have disallowed gender marker changes but allowed licenses to remain valid until renewal. Florida just went ahead and classified any gender marker update as criminal fraud, and its unclear how this works if you're getting your licence for the first time, or have changed other ID documents, making the DMV a more interesting experience to say the least. https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/feb/12/what-floridas-drivers-license-policy-change-means/
If it is true as you say that bureaucrats would be able to revoke documents on the basis of fraud, then yeah that's a little worrying.