Will transgender people be denied US passports on the basis of trans status by the end of the 2nd Trump administration?
27
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2029
18%
chance

Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people. The State Department has said they will « only issue passports with an M or F sex marker that match the customer's biological sex at birth. » Some trans people report delays of less than a month in passport processing.

This question will resolve YES if credible reports emerge of at least 5 people being denied US passports because they are trans. The question will NOT resolve yes if:

1) Trans people are denied passports for reasons unrelated to being trans

2) Delays in passport processing occur

3) Trans people are asked for extra proof of sex

4) Trans people are denied passports because they refuse to comply with the State Department policy of listing biological sex of M or F on the passport.

https://www.vox.com/politics/399502/transgender-passports-lgbtq-trump-marco-rubio-travel-gender

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/passports/passport-help/sex-marker.html#:~:text=Under%20the%20executive%20order%2C%20we,customer's%20biological%20sex%20at%20birth.

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Related market linked below. This question writer claims that « even routine renewals are being denied » but no source is given and I do not believe this to be true

https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-the-eo-barring-transgender-us

So if trans people can easily get passports but those passports need to have their biological/ assigned at birth sex? I mean in that case trans people can still get passports.

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