Background: some people have claimed that the Trump administration plans to refuse passports to trans people. The State Department has said they will « only issue passports with an M or F sex marker that match the customer's biological sex at birth. » Some trans people report delays of less than a month in passport processing.
This question will resolve YES if credible reports emerge of at least 5 people being denied US passports because they are trans. The question will NOT resolve yes if:
1) Trans people are denied passports for reasons unrelated to being trans
2) Delays in passport processing occur
3) Trans people are asked for extra proof of sex
4) Trans people are denied passports because they refuse to comply with the State Department policy of listing biological sex of M or F on the passport.
https://www.vox.com/politics/399502/transgender-passports-lgbtq-trump-marco-rubio-travel-gender
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@JamesEAdministrator Not being able to get a passport because of being in prison or certain criminal convictions is a rule that is not based on trans status, so no.
being in prison or certain criminal convictions is … not based on trans status
@KaylaG What if the convictions in question were for actions which were committed mainly due to trans status?
For example: say that cross-sex gender affirming hormone therapy is banned while same-sex gender-affirming hormone therapy (TRT/menopause treatment/etc.) is left legal. Certainly some transgender people would break this law — a law targeted at them, “based on trans status” — and some of them would wind up in prison and unable to get a passport.
You maintain that this example would not, on its own, cause this question to resolve "YES", even though it would be a case of people being unable to get a passport due (almost directly) to their being transgender?
@JamesEAdministrator Correct. The law would be targeting an action (illegally buying hormones), not the status of being trans. The action may be correlated with being trans in your example, but it’s not the same as the status.
For example, if men are more likely to commit felonies than women, and thus men are more likely to be denied a government privilege because of felony conviction, I wouldn’t consider that denial on the basis of sex.
Related market linked below. This question writer claims that « even routine renewals are being denied » but no source is given and I do not believe this to be true
https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-the-eo-barring-transgender-us
@KaylaG oh hey that’s my market! Sources are in my pinned comment on a different market: https://manifold.markets/KJW_01294/will-transgender-us-passports-with-qENPSOU66h#9cjhdlaqkls
I believe that renewals were getting denied (see my case studies) but I think they are no longer generally getting denied. Trans people are receiving passports, with the gender” marker changed to AGAB for ordinary renewals.
@KJW_01294 yeah, that’s consistent with my understanding. Trans people are not seeing their passport apps denied, but they are being issued passports with bio sex.