I have a passport book issued in NYC. I'm a white trans woman living near NYC. I pass quite well.
My age: about 30-35 years old
Date of issue: Late 2018
Date of expiry: Late 2028
Sex listed on passport: F
Sex on my drivers license: F
Assigned sex at birth == Sex on birth certificate (blue state): still M
I transitioned in 2018.
The market resolves YES if:
I receive notice that my passport is revoked (or will be revoked) from the US Department of State or similar official, OR
My passport is no longer sufficient to confirm my identity (e.g. in online government sites, for police, for travel -- for example, getting denied entry at an airport because of some problem with my passport counts)
If I choose to renew my passport before Jan 2028, I will resolve N/A. If I choose to renew after Jan 2028, I will resolve NO, assuming I'm still able to use it.
Whether or not I'm able to renew has no bearing on this market. This market is about proactive revocation.
Related markets:
For whether passports will be phased out gradually (unrenewable, not revoked)
For whether this will translate into increased widespread physical violence
Arbitrage opportunities:
1,000People are also trading
Market feels overvalued tbh, the Trump admin is now saying they wonât explore revocation, https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/state-department-reverses-course
In part because public outcry
Market feels undervalued tbh, the Trump administration is exploring revocation options for at least some transgender passport holders as of 2025 November. https://www.erininthemorning.com/p/trump-admin-quietly-changes-state
You mention your birth certificate has not been altered, despite being issued by a Democrat-controlled state. Does that state not allow elective alterations?
(If it does allow elective alterations, but you refrained from altering it for some other reason, I don't mean to pry into that reason; I'm just curious how altered birth certificates are going to end up playing into this whole drama.)
@JamesEAdministrator pardon, being a bit cagey because I donât want to leak personal info, but yes, my birth certificate does not match!